Here is how to trade the EURUSD right now

Written by Raul Lopez on . Posted in Trades & Analysis. 20 Comments

Euro Flag

Hope you all had a great weekend.

I’ve always said that the best currency pairs to trade are the ones that you know what the market is likely to do (aka clear market condition).

Forget about:

  • trying to guess what the market is doing, or
  • using magic formulas to forecast market direction, or
  • blindly using indicators to open your trades

That’s not the way to go… and will never be the way to go.

It’s all about adaptability.

  • You see the market going up, you look for long opportunities
  • You see the market going down, you look for short opportunities
  • You see the market ranging, you take extreme trades
  • You have no idea what the market is doing, you take no trade

How difficult is that?

What’s more important is that this way to trade is way less stressful and far more enjoyable.

My plan to trade the EURUSD

To tell you the truth, I didnt like the EURUSD at the beginning of the year, it didnt have clear S&R levels, it got rejected from random levels making it very difficult to trade.

That’s the reason I stop trading it for a few months.

I saw no point on trying to trade something that I have absolutely no idea of what the market was likely to do.

But things change my friend, and we need to adapt.

In this case the EURUSD changed from a very difficult chart to trade, to a very simple one… here it is, take a look at it:

EURUSD Analysis

What do you think I’m going to do right now?

You are right, since it was rejected from LT resistance level at 1.3400 it is now likely to continue its way down until it reaches the next LT support level at 1.2800, therefore, I’m going to look for short opportunities.

It is currently trading at 1.3286, so we have more than 400 pips to go.

Are you ready to get them?

Your turn

You see how different it is to try to guess what the market id doing than adapting to the market conditions?

What do you think about the EURUSD, are you going to trade it?

What other currency pairs are you currently watching?

Let me know in the comment section.

Tags: , ,

Raul Lopez

I've been trading the markets for more than 15 years. I believe the best way to trade is by adapting to the market conditions. You can learn it too, join our community .
  • Said

    Hi Raul
    EURUSD is captured in 1.33 and 1.342 range for the next couple of days. reaching 1.346-1.348 is not excluded.

  • Chad Hogan

    Hi Raul, I also shorted the Euro at the top of the range just after that piercing line day candle. I’m just not sure as yet whether this pair will decline all the way to the bottom of the range. I suppose it depends if the swings are going to stay symmetrical or contract or expand as markets usually do. Will share my fib analysis shortly.
    Will be watching price action closely..

    • Raul Lopez

      Hey Chad,

      What did you do?

      For now, I’m on the sidelines for the EURUSD…

      • Chad Hogan

        Hi Raul,
        Im now on the sidelines with you. Shorted it on the 4hr chart, was in profit about 80 pips then market retraced back to where I sold. Exited break even. Price has just tagged the previous swing’s %100 level so its at a very important level. What do you think?

        • Raul Lopez

          You know… I do agree with you, it is now trading at an important level.

          But you know something, that’s good… because now the range its even clearer.

          Now we know exactly the levels that the EURUSD needs to break in order to start looking for trade opportunities.

          Cheers,

  • pduarte

    Hello Raul,

    About the EURUSD, I agree that we have a rejection from the 1,33945 level, but for now shouldn’t we see how the pair is going to handle with the 1,3235 level and then the 1,3176 level (I know it’s 80 pips away) before take this bearish trade, and considering that the EUR is trading in S/R levels with the EURAUD, EURCAD and EURGBP?

    What do you think, Master Yoda?

    Cheer’s

    Paulo

    • Raul Lopez

      Hey Paulo, good to see you commenting here…

      If you take a look at your hourly chart, you’ll see that the EURUSD already broke through the short term support level, which is at 1.3281…

      So everything below that level is a short. If the EURUSD breaks up that level again, I’ll be on the sidelines… but for now I think it is likely to continue its way down… Based on the daily market condition.

      What’s your take?

      PS… Heheh master Yoda? The last time I thought I was master Yoda the market made me realize I was more like R2D2…. hehe

      Cheers

      • pduarte

        You are the Master Yoda, but we are fighting against Dark Vader Market.

        May the force be with you.

  • Somewhere

    Thank you for helping me take baby steps in trading.

    By the way USD/CAD seems to be headed into a triangle. Could be bullish, but previous triangle in the end of last year ended up being bearish from a bit lower price.

    • Raul Lopez

      Hey, I dont feel that comfortable with the USDCAD… I’d rather trade other pairs that have a clearer market condition like the EURUSD, EURAUD and others…

  • Guest

    Thank you for helping me baby steps in this world of trading.
    By the way it seems like USC/CAD seems to be closing in to some sort of a bullish triangle and it’s evident on different timeframes.

    • Somewhere

      Delete, something bugged out.
      Thank you.

  • Arafiena Pius

    Your analysis has just confirmed my initial view on eurusd. The daily chart and weekly chart are both having the same patterns. Thank you very much Raul..You are a God sent.

    • Raul Lopez

      No problem sir…

  • Said

    Hi Raul,

    I guess EURUSD is still that tricky. it’s still uptrending, it just retraces down to turn back at about 1.328 to reach 1.3443 as a next higher high.

    Said

    • Raul Lopez

      Based on the above analysis, it’s trading in a range and right now it looks like its being rejected from the top of the range…

      Good luck!

      • Said

        GPBAUD is now ready for the long uptrend and breakout

        • Said

          ..

  • Konni Rocks

    Thank you Raul for your analysis. With your article you strenghten my own anylysis. I also kept my hands off this pair for a long time and started to trade it again today and voila the price is going down :-)

    • Raul Lopez

      Hey Konni, the way to go…

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