And here we go again with the GBPUSD

Written by Raul Lopez on August 28, 2013. Posted in Trades & Analysis. 17 Comments

British Pound

There is no doubt that trading successfully is about choosing the right currency pairs to trade.

It’s not about the entry system, not about the indicators you use, not about Fibonacci, not even about price action… but the charts that you choose to trade.

The most powerful system wont make you some pips out of a crappy chart.

See what I mean?

So please, forget about your entry system and start doing some analysis, filter out the choppy charts from the clear ones… and results shall come.

Ok, so here we go…

GBPUSD Analysis

I dont know if you remember a few weeks ago I did my analysis on the GBPUSD, this was the daily chart:

GBPUSD Long term analysis

And this is how it looks right now:

GBPUSD Long term analysis

Back then I was looking for long opportunities since the GBPUSD got rejected from the bottom of the range…

And it did go up (look at the second chart).

Now it looks like its being rejected from the top of the range…

What would you do now?

Well, history tells us that since the GBPUSD was rejected from the top of the range, it is likely to continue its way down until it reaches the bottom of the range.

And that’s what I’m going to be looking for.

I’m not saying that you should open your trade now… this type of analysis is made to determine whether I’m going to trade this pair or not…

In this case, yes, it’s as clear as water, so I’m going to be looking for short opportunities.

Now, finding my entry signal is a different story…

Here is the short term chart:

GBPUSD Short term analysis

As you can see, the market has been acting little crazy in the last few hours… do you know why?

That was because of BOE Governor Carney speech.

So right now I’m going to wait until the GBPUSD settles down, and then I’ll look for my entry.

This analysis is good only if the GBPUSD keeps trading below 1.5544. If it breaks that level up I’ll need to reassess my analysis.

I’d be even more comfortable shorting the pound/dollar once it breaks the 1.5428 level…

Your turn

What do you think about the GBPUSD? Are you currently trading it?

Do you agree with me that your analysis is the most important aspect of trading?

Raul Lopez

I've been trading the markets for more than 15 years. I believe the best way to trade is by adapting to the market conditions. You can learn it too, join our community .

Said

i close the whole position.
Said

i close some of my long positions.
Mary Vu

hi Raul
why no one is talking about CHFUSD as it is at the bottom of range and it is safer than eur and gbp if we are talking about Syria.
- Raul Lopez
  
  Good to see you commenting here :)
  
  And you are absolutely right… the USDCHF is trading just at the bottom of the range… but I wouldnt trade it unless it breaks the ST resistance level around 0.9284…
  
  What do you think?
  - Mary Vu
    
    I agree there is a strong resistance around 0.9246 and on 22nd aug it did go down from around 0.9289 so will keep on watch list
    - Raul Lopez
      
      Looks like the USDCHF is breaking that resistance level now… we’ll see what happens!
      
      Good luck Mary!
      - Mary Vu
        
        Yes I only do eod so will see what price action this eve
      - Raul Lopez
        
        That’s right… the market has the final word… always!
        
        Thanks for your comments!
Said

I will initiate a long at 1.551 and exit on next short signal
- Raul Lopez
  
  Good luck!
  - Said
    
    M15 is oversold and first long still in profit, i will add to my long position a double size and short all on next short signal.
Craig Hantke

A couple of 4 hour candlesticks ago, there was a pretty long wick. Might that indicate it could swing up again? It seems people are going to EUR for safety during the possible Syria attack
- Raul Lopez
  
  Hey Craig,
  
  I dont pay too much attention to that candlestick… the market behaved like that because of a fundamental announcement… I still think it has plenty of bearish potential…
  
  I’m looking for a breakout of the lower extreme of the range.
  
  Cheers,
  - Said
    
    Hi Raul,
    that long tailed candle stick is price touch to a honnored channel support, better seen on the daily chart.
    after doing confluent analysis, when price goes againt me i average down with bigger sizes.
    take a look to the chart.
    - Raul Lopez
      
      Thanks Said, here is a link of why I dont like to use trendlines (or slopped channels):
      
      http://www.protradingnow.com/2013/07/10/why-its-very-dangerous-to-trade-using-trendlines/
      - Said
        
        i don’t use them either but only for illustration purposes or to define the trend.
        in this example, i wouldn’t consider anyshort trade until the daily closed price leaves that channel.
      - Guest
        
        and there they are.

And here we go again with the GBPUSD

GBPUSD Analysis

Your turn

Raul Lopez

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