How to trade the majors when they just dont move

Hey traders, I hope you are doing alright with your trading.

What do you think about the market lately? In the last few weeks, most of the currency pairs (specially the majors) have been trading in a very tight and undefined range…

It has been difficult to trade them… What’s your take?

Ok, let me tell you mine… but first something about fundamentals.

Fundamentals for the rest of the week

There are plenty of fundamentals this week, and a few of them are very important.

So maybe that’s the reason the market has been trading in a very tight range? It could be… but the truth is that no one knows the real reason…

Anyway, these are a few of the fundamentals that you need to be watching this week:

Wednesday:

USD FOMC minutes (the most important of them all)
EUR Draghi Speaks
AUD Employment report

Thursday:

GBP Interest rate
EUR Draghi Speaks

Friday:

CAD Employment report

I’m going to be specially careful about the FOMC minutes, it has the potential to change the sentiment of the market, so be careful alright? Specially if you plan to open a trade in any USD pair or if you have a trade open and the market is close to your entry or SL level…

Forex Majors Analysis

Almost all majors have been trading in a very tight and undefined range… If you have been trading them you know what I’m talking about…

Here are a few charts:

EURUSD

EURUSD Chart

NZDUSD

NZDUSD

USDCAD

USDCAD

So how do you trade that?

Easy… just dont trade them.

I’m serious…. forget about them, there is just no way to profit from swings like those… Remember that staying out of the market is our choice, it’s a trading decision because you could be risking your capital instead.

I’m sure you can find a profitable trades here and there on those pairs, but that’s not our main goal as traders.

Our main goal as traders is to find opportunities when the market is really likely to move in one direction over the other, that way we can use the probabilities on our favor.

So what do we do here?

Just find other crosses with clearer market condition…

Forex Pairs I’m Currently Watching

GBPUSD Analysis

Here is my long term chart:

GBPUSD Long Term Chart

It looks like the GBPUSD was rejected from an important resistance level around 1.6259 and I think it is likely to continue its way down, at least until it reaches the next LT support level around 1.5694.

So I’m going to be looking for short opportunities.

And here is my short term chart:

GBPUSD Short Term Chart

It’s got clear S&R levels on the short term charts… so it’s perfect to look for trade opportunities.

I’ll wait for the GBPUSD to break the short term support level around 1.6003 to open my trade.

CADJPY Analysis

From all the charts, this is probably the one that’s got the clearest market condition, clear swings, clear support and resistance levels, etc.

Here is the daily chart:

CADJPY Long Term Chart

In this case obviously, I’m looking for short opportunities.

So what do you think?

The best medicine to avoid short term undefined ranges is to stop trading them, and focus on the ones that have clearer market conditions.

Your Turn

Have you been trading the majors lately? Results?

What about the GBPUSD and the CADJPY? Would you trade them? What other pairs are you currently watching?

Please share your thoughts.

Comment below.

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Raul Lopez

I've been trading the markets for more than 15 years. I believe the best way to trade is by adapting to the market conditions. You can learn it too, join our community .

  • Waqas khan

    EW analysis shows bullish in gbp/usd. what do you think?

    • Raul Lopez

      Sorry Waqas… you know I dont follow EW, Fibonacci and other magical formulas…

      • Himanshu Dutta

        magic formulas !!
        actually i also think all other waves theory have been based on the support and resistances alone , and we should look for those levels only, what do you say raul?

  • soyleyenda

    me parece muy interesante

    • Raul Lopez

      good…

  • Angel Tee

    Raul, for both GBPUSD and CADJPY, I would like to observe how market react to that support zone, then only decide whether to long or short. If bounces off support, then look for Long, if penetrated support, then look to Short the retracement in shorter time frame.

    • Raul Lopez

      How did it go?

      • Angel Tee

        Long GBPUSD 1.5980, Stop below 1.5910.
        For CADJPY, market took off before I could find any entry.

        • Raul Lopez

          Still holding your GBPUSD trade?

          • Angel Tee

            Nearly got stopped out. Still holding and will monitoring 1.6120 level (if market able to reach there) and see how market react to that level.

          • Raul Lopez

            Good luck!

  • Himanshu Dutta

    great article mr. lopez !! those pairs you selected to trade are really fine ! thanks for writing !

    • Raul Lopez

      Thanks for your comment!

  • tp

    Man, I went long on AUDUSD because it broke out of the range yesterday even though it is underwater now. And, I agreed with your view on CADJPY. It looks really nice. :)

    • Raul Lopez

      GBPUSD is the one I like the most… it’s trading in a very clear bearish condition.

  • Mustaffa

    I have also flipped through the charts a few hours before you sent the email and the CADJPY is the pair that grabbed my attention :)
    I went short at 93.993 and now 20 pips in positive.

    • Raul Lopez

      Hey Mustaffa, Did you close your trade already? How did it go?

      What about the GBPUSD? Did you take it?

      Let me know!

      • Mustaffa

        Hi Raul, I have been trading FX since about 6 months, but after blowing a 10k $ account (in record time! :) ) using all kind of complicated EAs and indicators that were “guaranteed” to work.. lol
        Your trading style makes much more sense to me, so I started practising “seriously” on a demo account and if I can make consistent profits over some time I will go live again.
        Thanks a lot for sharing your valuable knowledge with us!!

  • Chandana

    Thanks Raul.
    It is interesting to know, not only me found it difficult to trade during last few days ;).
    Do you see anything in EURUSD daily chart as well? I mean a trade-able R level around 1.3650.

    • Raul Lopez

      It is trading around an important LT level… I’m waiting for a possible breakout in the following days…

  • Craig Hantke

    How about the EURCAD Raul. I’ve also been watching the CADJPY. thanks for the post Raul, good stuff

    • Raul Lopez

      Hey Craig… EURCAD is definitely bullish, and the next LT resistance level is at least 250 pips away from where it is currently trading at, so we got plenty of room…

      A breakout of the ST range could be a good possibility…

      Good luck!

      • Craig Hantke

        It could bounce off the 1.41 area back down. We’ll see in the next day or so I suppose