Short signal in the AUDUSD

Forex Market Analysis

You know that it always pays to trade in the direction of the market condition…

So the first thing that you do in the morning should be to find the currency pairs with the clearer market condition.

Forget about the fundamentals, forget about Fibonacci or Elliot Waves, forget about technical indicators, forget about everything, but the market condition.

If you read my previous articles you’ll know exactly what I mean by the market condition, but I’ll resume it here.

The market condition is defined by the way the market reacts to the long term S&R levels.

That’s it! No mumbo-jumbo stuff…

You should also know the main principle of the market condition and that is:

Most of the time, the market moves in waves, from one level to the other.

If the market gets rejected from an important level it goes back and hit the previous level, if the market breaks through an important level though, it should continue in the same direction until it hits the next resistance level.

Once you get a currency pair with a clear market condition, you just trade it in the direction of the market condition, and regardless of the entry system that you are using, the odds will be in your favor.

And if you keep doing the same thing over and over, at the end the probabilities will do its job, and you’ll get the results you are looking for.

Are you with me?

Ok, now to the signal in the AUDUSD

AUDUSD Short Signal

It just got triggered, let me show you my ST chart:

AUDUSD Entry Signal

Trade details:

Entry: 0.9077
SL: 0.9143
TP: 0.8916

I’m a few pips down, but I think I’ll do alright with this trade.

What is most important about this trade

What do you think is the most important aspect of this trade?

Is it the entry?

I dont think so, It’s the analysis that I did previous to my entry what is most important.

Take a look at the daly chart:

AUDUSD Long Term Analysis

In this chart, based on what I told you before, its trading in a bearish condition and it is likely to continue its way down.

And for that reason, I feel comfortable shorting it. Even if I lose this trade, I know that if I keep doing the same thing over and over, the probabilities will to their job, and I’ll be alright.

Makes sense?

Your Turn

What do you think about my concept of Market Condition?

What do you think about my AUDUSD analysis?

Are you going to trade?

Leave a comment!

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Raul Lopez

I've been trading the markets for more than 15 years. I believe the best way to trade is by adapting to the market conditions. You can learn it too, join our community .

  • Akparorue Eviano

    I don’t know if the decision I took was correct. I was awake when the market reversed so I decided to shift my SL upward because I am still seeing a bearish condition.

    • Raul Lopez

      mmmm Lets put it this way, monetary wise it wasnt that bad… but consistency wise it wasnt the best decision, if you do that 100 times, your trading account will get hurt…

      Good luck Eviano!

      • Akparorue Eviano

        Yaa. I totally agree with you. I did it because the bearish condition was too obvious before the news.

        • Raul Lopez

          I’m glad you do!


          • Akparorue Eviano

            Please, take a look at EURCAD, if it break, I believe it will be a good trade. At least 300pips before the next resistance level.

          • Raul Lopez

            You are right Eviano, I’m closely watching the EURCAD… I wont take a breakout trade there though, it’s too close to the LT level…

          • Akparorue Eviano

            please, do you have any other pairs you are monitoring?

          • Raul Lopez

            I’ll make a post about the currency pairs I’m closely watching…

          • Craig Hantke

            Hows your EURCAD going?

  • Arafiena Pius

    Based on your previous samples of chart analysis, i entered this trade using a pending order to go short at 0.90933. Well it is, so far so good. Thanks so much for sharing your experience.

    • Raul Lopez

      No problem Arafiena!

  • Akparorue Eviano

    Ya, I remember telling you about this pair last week. I know you did not sound convincing because of the little cloudiness on the daily chart. Thank you for always alerting us. I really appreciate it.

    • Raul Lopez

      Last week it was trading near an important level, in the last few days it broke through that important level triggering a bearish condition… that’s the reason I wasnt that confident last week!


  • Waqas Khan


    • Raul Lopez

      Good luck to us then Waqas!

      • Mohmmad Farid Uddin

        Dear Raul, You told in yr book ” My Trading Manifesto” that you will give another E-book about entry system, where is that E-BOOK ? Pls advise

        • Raul Lopez

          Still editing it… I dont have an exact date to release that eBook but I dont think it will happen before 2014.


          • Mohmmad Farid Uddin

            Thanks a lot for yr information

          • Raul Lopez

            No worries…

          • Mohmmad Farid Uddin

            Trade details: ( AUDUSD )

            Entry: 0.9077

            SL: 0.9143

            TP: 0.8916 –

            Bad luck for me, this time SL hit,

            Hope, next time will enjoy other currency trade

      • Waqas khan

        what about now?

        • Chris

          I think my stop loss hit soon

          • Raul Lopez

            It was hit!

        • Raul Lopez

          Keep looking for more opportunities… I think the condition is still the same, just the news release “private capital expenditure” (yesterday) made the market behave like that…