Here is your present…

present,

As promised, here is the analysis of the currency pairs I’m currently looking for trade opportunities.

Disclaimer: These are just the pairs that I’m going to trade (looking for trades), this should not be taken as trade recommendations. If you don’t agree with this, please stop reading now and close this window.

This is how I analyze the market

First I analyze the long term charts and look for the currency pairs that have the clearest market condition (clear swings and S&R levels).

Once I have a clear market condition, I look for my entries on the short term charts.

So when I say bullish condition, it means that it is more likely to continue is way up, and I will look for long opportunities (It DOES NOT mean to trade it right where it is ok?).

When I say bearish condition, it only means that the market its likely to continue its way down, and I will look for short opportunities.

Once I have a clear market condition, I try to find clear S&R levels on the short term charts to define my entries.

Is it clear?

Please do let me know if you have any question, because I’m going to send you my analysis everyday this week.

Sounds good?

Remember, blue levels are long term levels and the green ones are short term levels.

Ok, now lets take a look at some charts.

AUDCAD Analysis

As you can see in the following chart, the AUDCAD is trading in a very clear bullish condition, that means that I’ll be looking for long opportunities:

AUDCAD Long Term

Now, since it is trading in a very clear bullish condition, I need to look for my long entries on the short term charts… In order to have a plan I need to look for ST S&R levels…

Here is how the ST chart looks like:

AUDCAD Short Term

The AUDCAD has clear ST S&R levels, it has been rejected from the top of the ST range, so my plan is to wait for the market to reach the bottom of the range, if I get a significant pattern my upward pressure I’ll go long.

We’ll see what happens tomorrow.

GBPJPY Analysis

The GBPJPY is another currency pair where I’m currently looking for trade opportunities.

GBPJPY Long term

In this case, it is trading in a bearish condition (since it was rejected from the top of the range), and it is likely to continue moving down, until if hits the next LT support level around 161.25

Now, in this case we need to be careful because it might retrace back to the ST resistance level around 168.16, here is the chart:

GBPJPY Short Term

And basically, that’s what I looking for.

Unless we get a new range, I’ll take advantage of it and trade off there.

I’ll keep you updated.

NZDUSD Analysis

The NZDUSD is about to break the LT support level around 0.8099, here is the chart:

NZDUSD LT

But as you already know, we CANNOT confirm a breakout by just looking at the long term charts, we need to confirm this breakout also on the short term charts.

How do we do this?

Remember every time the market gets close to an important LT level, it tends to range, and we need to also confirm the breakout of that range on the ST charts. So here it is:

NZDUSD ST

As you can see, we still need to confirm the breakout of the ST support level to start looking for short opportunities… se we need to patiently wait for the market to confirm that level for us.

And once we get that confirmation, we’ll have more than 250 pips before we hit the next level… So it’s going to be good for us if we do get that confirmation!

Fingers crossed!

CADJPY Analysis

You can guess what’s the market condition by just looking at that chart cant you?

CADJPY LT

You are right, since it broke through the LT support level, it is likely to continue going down until it hits the next LT support level around 88.55

So we need to look for short opportunities here.

Here is the ST chart:

CADJPY ST

So basically I’m waiting for another retracement to the ST resistance level, and if I get a significant pattern with downward pressure I’ll go short.

That would be my plan for the CADJPY.

Summary

Today its a weird day, on most cases I’m waiting for retracement… most of the time I get both: retracement and breakout signals… but not today :(

Breakout signals are easier because you dont have to be in front of your computer to trade it, you can just leave a entry order (stop order most likely) and step away.

Any way, that’s how the market is sometimes…

GBPCAD trade update, as most of you already know, I got stopped out at a profit on that trade.

GBPAUD update, we were waiting for clearer levels on the short term chart, and never got them, so no trade.

Your turn

Please let me know if this analysis was useful for you? Do you want me to keep using the same format for the next few days? Please give me your feedback!

What do you think about my analysis?

What other currency pairs are you currently monitoring.

Please leave a comment.

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Raul Lopez

I've been trading the markets for more than 15 years. I believe the best way to trade is by adapting to the market conditions. You can learn it too, join our community .

  • Angel Tee

    Hi, Raul, how’s your day?

    You analysis simplify the complicated market conditions. Like you said, no need to trade everyday, just patiently for the right signals to take.

    Good day ahead. :)

    • Raul Lopez

      Thats right Angel, wait to trade the right pair at the right moment!

      Good day to you too!

      Cheers,

  • Dan

    Raul,

    Good Morning from the amateur from Australia,

    Thanks for the Christmas present. I have been watching them. The news is what spiked up the AUDCAD, cannot do much about that. Based on your email I could be half inclined to place a short on the CADJPY even though it has not reached your ST resistance level of 92.067 you mention but it appears to have met resistance at 91.965 on a trend line from the peaks 27 Jan & 3 Feb. and is now breaking short, the HI stochastic is also just started to turn short through the 75 level. BUT the H4 timeframe is showing it is in a very clear wave 3 short and still going, see the AO, but nearly there. It would then normally retrace long up to say around fib. 38% to 93.981 and only THEN head short into wave 5 with a potential of 500 pips to Fib. extension of 61.8 % target 1 and another 400 pips to Fib. ext. to target 2 .
    That would be my analysis / take on the CADJPY but please do not listen to me because as yet I have not made any money. I am however still trying my very best.

    P.S. there could be a small typo in your AUDCAD Analysis.
    As you can see in the following chart, the AUDCAD is trading in a very clear bullish condition, that means that I’ll be looking for short opportunities:
    I would read the chart that you would be looking for LONG opportunities. May be I could have mis interpreted your meaning.
    Kind Regards
    Dan

    • Raul Lopez

      Hey Dan, how is everything?

      Thank you for your analysis… I’ll stick to my plan, still waiting for a retracement to the ST level.

      That in fact was a typo, thank you for pointing it out Dan :) I’ll fix it right away!

      Good luck with your trades!

  • Wojtek

    Raul, I like this, I’ll be following your recommendations today and tomorrow but I’m going away on Wednesday for few days. Perhaps a better idea is to do your recommendations two or three times per week when something important happens? In any case great idea!

    • Raul Lopez

      Yeah, that would be a good idea, for this week though, I promised to share my analysis Monday through Thursday, and that’s what I’m going to do…

      Let me know if you open any trade…

      Good luck!

  • Waqas Khan

    awesome. i love it

    • Raul Lopez

      Let me know if you have any question Waqas!