Here is what I’m going to trade today

forex analysis

This is my second delivery, please let me know what you think.

Disclaimer: There are just the pairs I’m going to trade (or looking for trades), this should not be taken as trade recommendations. If you doth agree with this, please stop reading and close this window.

Important fundamental announcements

First of all, I’d like to remind you that we’ve got plenty of important fundamental announcements later this week:

Tuesday:

NZD Unemployment report

Thursday:

GBP Interest rate
EUR Interest rate
CAD Ivey PMI

Friday:

USD Non-farm payrolls report
CAD Unemployment report

Of course there are more than these, but these are the ones I consider have the potential to move the market.

Ok, now lets get to some charts

CHFJPY Analysis

As other JPY crosses, the CHFJPY is also trading in a very clear bearish condition, which means that it is likely to continue its way down until it hits the next LT support level (which is at 109.14).

CHFJPY Long Term

As you can see, it was rejected from the top of the range (which was exactly what triggered a bearish condition).

And for that reason, I’m going to look for short opportunities.

Now, we need to make sure that the ST charts are also “in line” with this.

Here is the ST chart:

CHFJPY ST

As you can see, it is retracing back to the ST resistance level around 112.48, I’m going to be ready to trade it there if I get a significant pattern with downward pressure.

We still got no signal… we need to patiently wait ok?

EURUSD Analysis

I know most of you monitor the EURUSD, so I thought about telling you what I think about it…

To tell you the truth, it’s been difficult to trade it because we’ve been getting pretty wild swings in the last few weeks… But things might change in the following days:

EURUSD LT

Since it was rejected from the top of the range, it is more likely to continue its way down at least until it hits the next LT support level (1.3402).

So for now, I’m going to be looking for short opportunities.

Now lets take a look at the short term charts:

EURUSD ST

I have two possible trade scenarios here:

  1. If the market retraces back to the ST resistance level (1.3530) and we get a significant pattern with downward pressure I’ll definitely go short.
  2. If the market breaks the previous low (1.3476) – I could use a stop entry order at 1.3466.

I favor the first scenario, because on the second one, the risk reward ratio will not be 2:1, so you need to be careful about this one ok?

USDCAD Analysis

Another currency pair I’m currently watching is the USDCAD… and decided to post my analysis about this one because there are so many thing we can learn about the USDCAD right now…

Let me show you the LT chart:

USDCAD LT

What can you tell about this chart?

It is currently trading at an important level (if you go back to 2009 you’ll see where that level is coming from). Ok, so it is currently trading at an important level…

Now what do we do? Has it already been rejected from that resistance level? Should I start trading it right now?

Those are the kind of questions that we get when the market trades near an important level.

And let me tell you something, you cannot answer that by looking only at the LT chart, you need to combine it with your ST analysis… Here is how I do it:

USDCAD ST

Ok, most of the time, the market trades near a LT level, if you look at that on the short term charts, that’s how it looks like…

Like a small consolidation period.

And this can help you create your trading plan for this one.

In this case, if the USDCAD breaks the ST support level (1.1047) I’ll start to look for short opportunities, that is exactly what triggers a bearish condition.

If, on the other hand, the USDCAD breaks the top of the range, that will trigger a bullish condition, and I’ll start to look for long opportunities.

You have no idea how can this help you trade with less stress, more confident and comfortable, and this at the end, helps you trade with discipline, which is what you require to trade with consistent results.

Makes sense?

Summary

I tried to analyze different pairs from yesterday, so you get a breeder perspective of the ones that I’m currently watching.

From the ones that I analyzed yesterday:

CADJPY, still bearish, retracement still on its way.

GBPJPY, still bearish, retracement still on its way.

AUDCAD, still bullish, and I’m waiting for a retracement to the ST support level (was resistance at 0.9821).

NZDUSD, It didnt break the ST support level, and looks like it will move north, so we need to wait a little longer to get our confirmation.

Remember to take into consideration the fundamental releases due later this week.

Your turn

Again, let me know what you think about the format of my analysis or if you would do it in another way, etc. I’ll appreciate your feedback!

Did you trade something based on yesterdays analysis? How did it go?

What about today’s analysis, are you watching those pairs?

What other pairs are you currently watching?

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Raul Lopez

I've been trading the markets for more than 15 years. I believe the best way to trade is by adapting to the market conditions. You can learn it too, join our community .

  • tp

    good stuff Raul! I have much to learn from you on ‘being selective’ and patient on my trade.

    • Raul Lopez

      We all have much to learn from the market TP… We need to be as selective as possible to increase the likelihood of each one of our trades…

      Good luck!

  • Waqas Khan

    i am entered in chfjpy with 112.48 SL . and in EURUSD with 1.3535 SL.
    right or not?

    • Raul Lopez

      Right or not? The market will answer that…

      • Waqas Khan

        what do you think about chfjpy now?

        • Raul Lopez

          Waqas, see my analysis above… things have not changed.

      • Waqas Khan

        what do you CHFJPY now?

  • Chad Hogan

    hey Raul,
    So glad I’m looking at the same opportunities as you. I’m already short on chfjpy, over 100 pips, looking to add to that hopefully. Was thinking exactly the same bout eurusd so am waiting at the moment. I also have a trade going on nzdjpy and was up 200 pips or so. I’ve let it retrace but am not sure to close it or leave it. N that damn Usdcad, I wish I held that trade. Thanks for your analysis.

    • Raul Lopez

      Wow Congrats Chad!!! I’m also glad we are both looking at the same pairs…

      Let me know how you handle those trades!

      Good luck!

  • Said

    Assuming CADJPY to be bearish, USDCAD is then bullish.
    I just entered usdcad long from the lower support.

    Hopefully, I’m not wrong ;-)

    • Raul Lopez

      Hey Said, you know in the Forex market is all relative. CADJPY could be bullish (because of JPY weakness) and still USDCAD could be bullish (because of USD strength)…

      And that’s the reason I’m still waiting for the confirmation in the USDCAD…

      It’s alright to trade inside the range though, it’s a quite strong support level so I think you did the right thing…

      For me, I’m waiting for a breakout of either extreme of the range to start looking for trade opportunities.

      Good luck Said!

      • Said

        You’re right. That why they say that every pair is special. i mean especially if pairs are traded by different institutions.

        In fact i got a kind of indication that the usdcad will go long and i assume to see later further advancement toward 1.1248, 1.13 or even upper.

        I invite you to join me.there will be a strong uptrend in the next couple of hours.

        i hope it at least :-)

        • Raul Lopez

          Hehe Good luck Said, I’m going to stick to my plan, if it breaks the resistance level I’ll definitely join you…

          • Said

            look, in a moment it will jump to 1.114 ;-)

            it’s loading….

          • Raul Lopez

            The way I see it Said, it is currently trading at an important level, so it can go either way… For that reason I’m waiting for a breakout of either extreme of the range…

            That’s what I mean when I talk about adapting to the market conditions, I wait for the market to make its first move, then I follow it!

            But I wish you the best of lucks!

            Please let me know how it goes!

  • Craig Hantke

    eurusd and chfjpy have a slight positive correlation, so could watch 1 and take action on both if they move in our direction ;)
    thanks for this Raul!
    I actually took some profits on NZDUSD and it moved north from the ST line

    • Raul Lopez

      Yep, both of them are correlated, I take only one of them if the signal appears at the same time… but if I get them at different times, I trade them…

      Congrats for your trade on the NZDUSD… I’ll be waiting a little longer there…

      Good luck!