This is my second delivery, please let me know what you think.
Disclaimer: There are just the pairs I’m going to trade (or looking for trades), this should not be taken as trade recommendations. If you doth agree with this, please stop reading and close this window.
Important fundamental announcements
First of all, I’d like to remind you that we’ve got plenty of important fundamental announcements later this week:
NZD Unemployment report
GBP Interest rate
EUR Interest rate
CAD Ivey PMI
USD Non-farm payrolls report
CAD Unemployment report
Of course there are more than these, but these are the ones I consider have the potential to move the market.
Ok, now lets get to some charts
As other JPY crosses, the CHFJPY is also trading in a very clear bearish condition, which means that it is likely to continue its way down until it hits the next LT support level (which is at 109.14).
As you can see, it was rejected from the top of the range (which was exactly what triggered a bearish condition).
And for that reason, I’m going to look for short opportunities.
Now, we need to make sure that the ST charts are also “in line” with this.
Here is the ST chart:
As you can see, it is retracing back to the ST resistance level around 112.48, I’m going to be ready to trade it there if I get a significant pattern with downward pressure.
We still got no signal… we need to patiently wait ok?
I know most of you monitor the EURUSD, so I thought about telling you what I think about it…
To tell you the truth, it’s been difficult to trade it because we’ve been getting pretty wild swings in the last few weeks… But things might change in the following days:
Since it was rejected from the top of the range, it is more likely to continue its way down at least until it hits the next LT support level (1.3402).
So for now, I’m going to be looking for short opportunities.
Now lets take a look at the short term charts:
I have two possible trade scenarios here:
- If the market retraces back to the ST resistance level (1.3530) and we get a significant pattern with downward pressure I’ll definitely go short.
- If the market breaks the previous low (1.3476) – I could use a stop entry order at 1.3466.
I favor the first scenario, because on the second one, the risk reward ratio will not be 2:1, so you need to be careful about this one ok?
Another currency pair I’m currently watching is the USDCAD… and decided to post my analysis about this one because there are so many thing we can learn about the USDCAD right now…
Let me show you the LT chart:
What can you tell about this chart?
It is currently trading at an important level (if you go back to 2009 you’ll see where that level is coming from). Ok, so it is currently trading at an important level…
Now what do we do? Has it already been rejected from that resistance level? Should I start trading it right now?
Those are the kind of questions that we get when the market trades near an important level.
And let me tell you something, you cannot answer that by looking only at the LT chart, you need to combine it with your ST analysis… Here is how I do it:
Ok, most of the time, the market trades near a LT level, if you look at that on the short term charts, that’s how it looks like…
Like a small consolidation period.
And this can help you create your trading plan for this one.
In this case, if the USDCAD breaks the ST support level (1.1047) I’ll start to look for short opportunities, that is exactly what triggers a bearish condition.
If, on the other hand, the USDCAD breaks the top of the range, that will trigger a bullish condition, and I’ll start to look for long opportunities.
You have no idea how can this help you trade with less stress, more confident and comfortable, and this at the end, helps you trade with discipline, which is what you require to trade with consistent results.
I tried to analyze different pairs from yesterday, so you get a breeder perspective of the ones that I’m currently watching.
From the ones that I analyzed yesterday:
CADJPY, still bearish, retracement still on its way.
GBPJPY, still bearish, retracement still on its way.
AUDCAD, still bullish, and I’m waiting for a retracement to the ST support level (was resistance at 0.9821).
NZDUSD, It didnt break the ST support level, and looks like it will move north, so we need to wait a little longer to get our confirmation.
Remember to take into consideration the fundamental releases due later this week.
Again, let me know what you think about the format of my analysis or if you would do it in another way, etc. I’ll appreciate your feedback!
Did you trade something based on yesterdays analysis? How did it go?
What about today’s analysis, are you watching those pairs?
What other pairs are you currently watching?