2 possible entry signals

Bull bear market

This one would be my 3rd delivery… What do you think so far about my analyses and its format? I’ll appreciate your feedback!

If there is one thing that I’d lie you to learn from my analyses is that there is nothing better than adapting to the market condition.

Sometimes it might seem easier to try to guess what the market is likely to do, but its far better to wait for the market to make its first move, only then you make your move.

And if there was a second thing that I’d like you to get is that sometimes the market (a currency pair) is not tradable.

Forget about choosing to trade a currency pairs because of its spread, or because you feel more comfortable taking longs (or shorts), or because you have an hunch about that currency pair.

Trade the ones that have a clear market condition, the ones that have clear S&R levels and swings. If you know this information, you also know what it is more likely to do. With this, you’ll win half of the battle (you’d need risk and trade management to win the other half – but that’s another subject).

Put it this way, even when you know what the market is likely to do, the market could move the other way, that’s just how the market is. Now imagine your possibilities when you have absolutely no idea of what the market is likely to do?

Your chances of success are slim.

On the other hand, if you always trade based on what the market is most likely to do, sooner or later the probabilities will do their job, and you’ll have a good possibility to succeed.

Look, it doesn’t even matter what type of system you use, just make sure you are adapting to the market condition.

Think about this, because it is a deal breaker.

Let me know what you think in the comment section.

Ok, enough blah blah lets get to some charts…

CHFJPY Analysis

Yesterday I shared with you my CHFJPY analysis.

From a long term perspective, its pretty clear that it is trading in a bearish condition, please refer to yesterdays analysis if you’d like more info about the long term analysis and the reason why I’m looking for short opportunities here.

Based on the short term charts, I was waiting for a retracement to the ST resistance level (which the market did).

Let me show you that chart:

CHFJPY ST

We got that retracement, but never got a significant pattern with downward pressure :(

But no worries, because we are adapting and now we have a plan B

If the market breaks the previous low of 111.77 plus spread I’ll take my trade (short stop entry).

And this is our first signal!

On to the second one…

Again, the AUDCAD is trading in a very clear bullish condition, if you want to know why please refer to mondays analysis.

In yesterdays summary (where I usually review the previous analysis) I mentioned what I was waiting for the AUDCAD… we had to adapt because the AUDCAD broke through the ST resistance level.

I said that I was waiting for a retracement to the ST support level (which was a resistance) for a significant pattern with upward pressure. And guess what? We’ve got that pattern (arrow)…

But dont worry if you didn’t get in (some of us were asleep), we’ve got another possibility.

Here is my chart:

AUDCAD ST

See the arrow, that’s what I meant by a significant pattern with upward pressure.

The other possibility would be a breakout of the previous high: stop entry order resting at 0.9910 + spread.

As with yesterdays entry in the EURUSD, you need to be careful here because of the risk reward ratio.

EURNZD Analysis

I have analyzed so far some of the currency pairs that I’m currently trading or looking for trade opportunities.

But I’d also like this opportunity to show you something that I wouldnt trade.

A few of the reasons why I wouldn’t trade a currency pair could be because it doesn’t have clear S&R levels, no clear swings which means that I have absolutely no idea of what it is likely to do.

Here is the EURNZD:

EURNZD LT

Any idea of where it is heading? If you have please tell me because I dont…

if it stops moving up/down at random levels there is no way of telling when its going to change direction, therefore we dont know when to trade, or where to set your SL and TP orders, etc.

So when ever you see something like this, please ignore it.

Summary

Today we’ve got two breakout possibilities.. we’ll see if we nail them down.

Remember that tomorrow we’ve got a few important fundamentals, so you need to be careful about that… The rule I use to deal with fundamental announcements is this one: If I dont have at least 60 pips on my favor I close it.

We’ll see what happens…

From yesterdays analysis:

USDCAD, still trading inside the ST range, we need a breakout in order to start looking for trade opportunities.

EURUSD, trading very very slow…zzzzz

CHFJPY, see above.

Your turn

Again, let me know what you think about the analysis and its format.

Did you take any of yesterdays trades?

What about todays analysis, are you keen about trading any of those?

Let me know in the comment section.

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Raul Lopez

I've been trading the markets for more than 15 years. I believe the best way to trade is by adapting to the market conditions. You can learn it too, join our community .

  • Wojtek

    Hi Raul, Regarding CHF/JPY your signal hasn’t appeared and it went upwards, however in the last 4 hours seems to be going down. Shall we enter short now or wait for 111.77 as you stated above. What do you think? We might miss the boat if we wait …

    • Raul Lopez

      Hey Wojtek,

      Thank you for pointing that out!

      One of the things that I try to do every day is to adapt to the market conditions, and I think the conditions of the CHFJPY have changed… so for now I’m not going to focus in the CHFJPY, I¡m sure there are other opportunities out there (currencies) with clearer market conditions!

      Let me know if you do something with the CHFJPY.

  • Chad Hogan

    Hi Raul, I thought I’d give audcad a miss considering the past high up around 1.00270 which is just over 100 pips or so away. Are you not concerned about that high? I also noticed the price action on the retrace back to the st level but thought it wasn’t significant enough? Turns out it was. I’m still holding chfjpy n will probably add to it with another sell stop. Thanks for all your effort.
    cheers

    chad.

    • Raul Lopez

      Hey Chad, yep, I’m concerned about the previous high… but I’m more concerned about the news later today, so I guess I’m going to have to close that trade…

      About the significance of the pattern, measure the whole patter (both candlesticks), you’ll see that from high to low, that pattern is larger than any of the preceding candlesticks that for that swing…

      You’ve got a great trade in the CHFJPY… How many pips so far?

      Good luck Chad!

  • Tania

    Hi Raul, I got in on the audcad 10p + spread above price action from support. see how we go. thanks for your analysis :)

    • Raul Lopez

      Good luck to us Tania… I’ll answer your email in a minute :)