I’m going to trade these two pairs (with possible entry levels)

technical indicators

Traders, I hope you had a great weekend! And had some rest because you are going to need it!

Last week was a difficult week to trade, we had plenty of fundamental announcements: interest rates, NFP, Central Banks conferences, etc, etc, etc.

No wonder why so many traders and investors didn’t trade much in the last two weeks, you can see that because of the low volume and small ranges (i.e. GBPUSD hourly chart)…

But things should be different now.

Now, there are a few currencies that are still trading in a consolidation period, they should be out of it by the end of the week.

And that’s good news for us, usually when the market gets out of those consolidation periods it really moves, so I think we all should be ready when it happens.

Agree with me?

Anyway, here are a few of the currency pairs that I’m currently monitoring.

EURCAD Analysis

If you look at the long term chart (daily) you’ll see that it traded for a couple of weeks near a LT resistance level (around 1.5244), but now it looks like its already out of it:

EURCAD

So it looks like its already broke that consolidation period, which means that it is trading in a bullish condition.

Lets see what the ST charts look like:

EURCAD

You see that range? Last Friday announcement helped the EURCAD broke through it, which is good.

Now, I have two possible scenarios to trade the EURCAD:

  • If it retraces back to the ST support level (1.5343) and it forms a significant pattern with upward pressure, I’ll go long.
  • The second scenario is if it retraces back and we don’t get that pattern, but still it moves up, I’ll set an order above the previous high (the previous high is 1.5463), 10 pips + spread.

I’m comfortable trading both scenarios, we’ll see what happens.

USDJPY Analysis

The USDJPY is trading in a similar condition.

It traded for a while in a consolidation period in the LT charts:

USDJPY

Again, the USDJPY already broke that range, which is exactly what triggered a bullish condition, meaning that we should only look for long opportunities.

Now we need to look at the ST charts to confirm our trading plan:

USDJPY

So basically I have the same two possible scenarios:

  • If the USDJPY retraces back to the ST support level (around 102.63) and we get a significant pattern with upward pressure, I¡ll go long.
  • And the second one is if the USDJPY retraces back and we dont get our pattern, but still moves up, I’ll go long at the breakout of the previous high (previous high is at 103.74), 10 pips above + spread.

Your turn

How was your trading last week? Did you trade?

What do you think about my analysis and entry signals?

What other pairs are you following?

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Raul Lopez

I've been trading the markets for more than 15 years. I believe the best way to trade is by adapting to the market conditions. You can learn it too, join our community .

  • vgmayo

    Hi Raul,

    I have been reviewing your articles and I can see how both movements where against your plan, was thus?

    You accepted the lose? Or your StopLoss was down and in the end the trade had profit?

    Thank you!

    • Raul Lopez

      Hello Victor, when the market retraces back to the ST important level, I still need to see some kind of upward or downward pressure to go long/short…

      So it doesnt mean that just because it retraced back I took that trade.

      A few months back I wrote an article about exactly what do I mean by upward/downward pressure.

      did you take any of those trades?

      Let me know.

  • Cio D.

    Hi Raul,
    In both pairs, you were waiting for retracement first, then either you will enter if there is upward pressure or via break out (after the retracement). What if the price did not make a retracement but instead went up / break out immediately, you will open a trade? or will you open a trade only if it go through first a retracement?
    Gracias.

    • Raul Lopez

      That’s correct Cio, that’s the reason I use both strategies: retracement and breakout strategies…

  • Muhammad Ahsun

    Hi Raul,
    Hope you are safe and sound
    First i would like to thank you for creating such a wonderful website and sharing quality content. By using your way of analysis of choosing right currency pairs i have achieved too much success from my existing strategy for which i am thankful to you.
    I have 2 questions Raul
    1. On your analysis you often refers to a significant pattern on retraces to Short term level so i would like to know what exactly is that pattern you consider significant?
    2. You often use use stop entry orders so in that case what will be the right placement of stop loss according to your opinion because your opinion much matters to me…

    Regards
    Muhammad Ahsun

    • Raul Lopez

      Hello Muhammad,

      I’m glad my articles are helping you get better results…

      1. I’ve written plenty of articles about why I mean by that, if you go back to previous articles you’ll see exactly what I mean by a significant pattern with upward/downward pressure (I dont have enough room to explain it to you here)

      2. All my SL levels on breakout trades are always placed above/below the most relevant S&R level (i.e. the breakout level).

      HTH

      • Muhammad Ahsun

        Hey thanks Raul. I am checking now

        • Raul Lopez

          Let me know if you need anything else.

  • Tania

    Hi Raul, I held trades through last week long eurjpy currently up 213p, and short audnzd up 125p. agree with eurcad have pend order on at 1.5476 but will watch to see if get price action signal if it retraces back to support for better entry. I’m also not too sure about usdjpy as yet so will keep a watch on it :)

    • Raul Lopez

      Wow Tania, congratulation… great job!

      We’ll see what happens with both of them, seems like the market is asleep Zzzzzz…

  • pascal81

    Yes I think the eur cad is a good trade I will watch it last week had a losing trade I sold eur cad and made 30 pips but I kept the position 2 days later it turned the other way and I didnt move my sl to 0 so lost small amount I think I should have be more careful because it is a uptrend evantually waiting thank u raul good luck this week

    • Raul Lopez

      Yep, I agree with you, its in an uptrend, and also a bullish condition, so long are in play here… We’ll see what happens!

      • Craig Hantke

        looks like usdjpy came down. let’s see if it follows through to the upside further

        • Raul Lopez

          Hello Craig, yes, like all other JPY crosses… We’ll need to re-asses their analysis early next week…

          Have a great weekend!

          • Craig Hantke

            Might be time to re-assess

          • Raul Lopez

            that’s right!!! since last week…

  • APOSTOLIS

    hello Raul,
    last week was a hard choppy market…not much success just break even on my open trades. I totally agree about the EURCAD, not sure yet about USDJPY, I m shorting this pair curently, but not so happy so far I m having a close watch of this pair the next hours espessially after the daily close.
    I also favoured to short AUD as AUDNZD or AUDCHF, what do you think? :)

    • Raul Lopez

      If you broke even last week you did a terrific job! You have no idea how much money was lost last week by other traders!

      If you are not confident about the USDJPY, just wait for a breakout of the previous high, that’s a more conservative entry…

      On both, the AUDNZD and AUDCHF I dont like the way the market is trading in the short term charts, they dont have clear S&R levels which makes my nervous, and for that reason I’m not currently looking for trade opportunities on neither of them…