This is today’s best trade opportunity

Pound dollar

Hey trader, what do you think about the market this week so far?

Some crosses are still trading in undefined ranges, without clear S&R levels, no clear wings, etc.

But little by little, each one of them are getting out of that consolidation period that made it very difficult to trade.

And here is one example.

The EURGBP just broke through an important support

The EURGBP was trading in a difficult range to trade I would say… But it looks like its getting our of that range. Here is the daily chart:

EURGBP Daily

So it looks like the EURGBP will continue to move down until it reaches its next LT support level around 0.7962

So I think we should start looking for short opportunities in the EURGBP.

Now, should you open your trade right now?

Not so fast, we need to see what’s going on on the short term charts first…

Here is the 30 minute chart:

EURGBP 30M

I need look for clear S&R levels in the ST chart in order to find possible entry levels, and as you can see in the chart above, we’ve got clear resistance and that would be our first possibility, to wait for a retracement to that level (0.8167).

The other trading scenario would be to wait for a second rejection of the lower extreme and then wait for a breakout.

Now, the EURGBP is currently trading 180 pips away from its next LT support level, and you’ve got to remember two things:

  • The EURGBP doesn’t move that much, you could easily take a trade here with a 20 pip SL, so there will be enough risk/reward ratio in a trade here
  • The pip value in the EURGBP is larger than in most currency pairs, right now each pip is valued at $16.83 (trading 100,000 units).

Your turn

Which scenario do you favor?

Do you agree with me that the EURGBP is one of the currency pairs with the clearest market condition?

What other pairs are you currently watching?

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Raul Lopez

I've been trading the markets for more than 15 years. I believe the best way to trade is by adapting to the market conditions. You can learn it too, join our community .

  • Chad Hogan

    Hi Raul,

    EURGBP is almost good to trade I think. Just broke range tonight. My plan is to wait for retrace back to 0.81270 or sell stop under swing low. I have passed up on EURNZD as Im concerned about resistance at 1.60580? I do believe it will reach your target around 1.62270 though. Im currently around 70 pips up in AUDNZD and am still long on GBPCHF. FOMC at 4 in the morning might change all that!!

    • Raul Lopez

      EURGBP is looking good… I agree with your plan Chad… We’ll see what happens.

      I see where 6058 is coming from, but the market already broke through that level twice, that’s the reason I’m not taking it in consideration…

      GBPCHF moved in your favor…

      Good luck Chad!

  • richard

    Got into your email a bit late. EURGBP Looking for a break below 0.8136 for a sell or retrace to .8196 for buy. Will decide from 4 hr charts for both. thanks Raul. GBPusd look for a buy break out above 1.6832

    • Raul Lopez

      Good luck Richard! Let me know if you have any question…

      GBPUSD, still not convinced… I’ll wait a little longer and see how it behaves around that level.

      Cheers,

  • pduarte

    Hey Raul,

    Hope to find you OK.

    Today is a sad day,because my football team have lost the Europa Leage Final, but I can live whit that.

    Now about trading, I thing that we have a lot of opportunities to trade:

    AUDCHF: Broke the resistence level at 0,8325 and we got plenty of room to go long
    EURAUD: It’s on a support level at 1,4555 let’s wait if it brokes that leve down and we can have a 425pips trade until 1,4115 support.
    CHFJPY: Broke the SF Box, so we can look for shart trades until 111,65 level at least.
    EURNZD: Wait a little longer to go short but it’s a good opportunity to a 740pips trade.
    EURUSD: It’s on a support level let’s see what happen’s but if it break the support …
    CADCHF: It’s in a resistence level at 0,8215 we must wait to see a range to go possibly long.
    GBPCHF: We still got some room to go long, but not to much.
    EURGBP: We must see the break of the SF Box to go short.
    EURCAD: It’s on a support at 1,4816 if it breack’s that support we can have a 440pips trade.
    NZDCHF: Can have an opportunity to go long.

    So, we have plety of opportunities to trade.

    Cheer’s

    Paulo

    • Raul Lopez

      Hello Paulo,

      Yes, I saw the match yesterday… penalties… Did you like the way Benfica played though?

      AUDCHF, agreed.
      EURAUD, too close to support.
      CHFJPY, bearish.
      EURNZD, too close to support levels. But if it breaks, yes, plenty of room.
      EURUSD, not clear to me. Better USDCHF, what do you think?
      CADCHF, see today’s post.
      GBPCHF, agreed.
      EURGBP, see the analysis above.
      EURCAD, agreed.
      NZDCHF, looks like its retracing back… what do you think?

      Please share your thoughts.

      Good luck Paulo, and there is still one championship to go for Benfica right?

      • pduarte

        Hello Raul,

        Sory to answer only now, but yes, about benfica I saw three, or at least tow penalties to our favor, and also we have played without three very important players and another one have left the field in the begining of the game, but there isn’t such thing like the moral winner, so we go for another final on sunday and let’s see what happens.

        Now about trading, those news have knotty the grafics a little bit, but not too much, let’s see:

        AUDCHF: still on the 0,8325 zone, probably we ae going to see a SF box, but for now it is respecting the 0,8296 support on the H4 chart, so it is still bulish.
        EURAUD: If we look closer we have a support zone at 1,4555, but we also have a resistence zone at 1,4660 in the H4 chart which as been respected after the last announcents, so we must wait a little longer.
        CHFJPY: Great opportunity to go short.
        EURNZD: For now it is ranging but respecting the 1,59 level.
        EURUSD: Wait to see…
        CADCHF: You are right, and even after the last news the pair respected the 0,8164 support and now is going up, so let’s wait a little longer.
        GBPCHF: Same as last post, let’s see the opening of the market.
        EURGBP: Yep, you’re right, just see what happens if it creates a SF box or if it goes straight down.
        EURCAD: Same aslast post.
        NZDCHF: For now it as respected the 0,7662 support so we are still on the game,
        Now, new ones:
        EURJPY: Going down untill 136,120?
        GBPCAD: Something to follow, that 1,8168 zone.
        NZDJPY: Follow the 87,39 zone.

        About the USDCHF, I like it too, and even after the speech it as respected the 0,8882 support, so have we must wait a little longer?

        Let me know your opinion,

        Cheer’s,

        Paulo

        • Raul Lopez

          How did it go yesterday with Benfica??? Did you win???

          AUDCHF, mi mistake here… I even wrote an article about this one last week, it’s bullish already… take a look at that article…
          EURAUD, I’m not monitoring it at the moment.
          CHFJPY, yep, agreed.
          EURNZD, wait a little longer.
          Both, EURUSD and USDCHF dies after last week Yellen intervention.
          CADCHF, agreed.
          GBPCHF, Yep, same here.
          EURGBP, still trading in that ST range.
          EURCAD, same here.
          NZDCHF, mmm not convinced yet.
          EURJPY, agreed.
          GBPCAD, Like the resistance level, but not so sure about the LT support level… what do you think?
          NZDJPY, yep, agreed.

          Have a good week ahead Paulo!

          Cheers,

  • Hey Raul,
    I know you are not so much for candles, but check out that Weekly candle. There is a long wick, and a lot of room the left, seems like it could go up for the next couple weeks (after this week closes). To me, it looks like a confirmation support of .815 zone. We will see next monday I guess!

    • Raul Lopez

      Hey Craig, thank you for the heads up… I guess we’ll have to wait and see how the candlestick closes at the end of the week…

      Will let you know what I think by that time!

      How is your trading going so far this week?

      • Trading has been a little slow but is picking up. I did a NZDJPY short for a decent profit.

        • Raul Lopez

          Yep, it has been slow… But still there are a few good opportunities…

  • Chad Hogan

    G’Day Raul,
    Ive been watching and waiting for EURGBP to break support. Im also waiting for price to retrace back before I trade it. Its doing that right now, hopefully we get that pressure to go short…

    • Raul Lopez

      Yep, that announcement certainly helped the EURGBP to retrace back… now we only need some downward pressure and we’ll be good to go…

  • Dan

    Morning from Australia Raul,
    Your plan on the EUR GBP to retrace back up to around 0.81826 is the only way to go. By about then the stochastic will have retraced back to over the 75 level on the H4 and one could then check the H1 time frame for an entry.

    • Raul Lopez

      Hey Dan, good morning!

      Yep, it looks like the retracement is the way to go… Be careful with tomorrow’s GBP fundamental announcements though…

      Good luck!

  • Waqas Khan

    good analysis i am with you. i am short in EG with 8170 stop

    • Raul Lopez

      Good luck Waqas, I’m still waiting for a retracement though…

      Where did you get in?

  • Vicky

    USD/CHF???

    • Raul Lopez

      USDCHF is trading in a very clear range, between 0.8922 and 0.8724… thing is, it is too close to the resistance level now, so we need to wait and see how it behaves around that level…

      Good luck!