Here is my trading plan for the USDCHF

Entry Signal

I know most of you like to trade the EURUSD, mostly because it is usually the currency pair with the tightest spread…

I know, I like that too…

But you also know that the USDCHF is negatively correlated to the EURUSD… that means that when the EURUSD goes up, the USDCHF tends to go down and viceversa.

And if you have been following my analyses, you also know that our job as traders is to find the currency pairs that have the clearest market conditions…

And let me tell you something, right now, the USDCHF is way clearer than the EURUSD…

So if you asked me… which one would you trade right now? I’d definitely go for the USDCHF… without a doubt!

So here is what I think about the USDCHF

USDCHF Analysis

Here is what the long term chart look like:


The first thing that you notice in this chart is that it’s got clear swings, and clear support and resistance level, so I would definitely would feel comfortable taking a trade here…

The thing is that right now it is too close to an important long term level (0.8929).

We don’t know (yet) whether the market is going to get rejected or break through that level… So we need to look at the short term charts…


So here is my plan:

If the USDCHF breaks through the upper resistance level it will trigger a bullish condition, that means that I’ll look only for long opportunities.

If it breaks through the lower support level it will trigger a bearish condition, which means that I’ll only look for short opportunities.

If it keeps trading in between both levels, I’ll do nothing.

Your turn

What do you think about my trading plan?

Are you going to trade the USDCHF?

What other pairs are you monitoring?

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Raul Lopez

I've been trading the markets for more than 15 years. I believe the best way to trade is by adapting to the market conditions. You can learn it too, join our community .

  • tp

    Waiting to see if it will break the resistance to look for long opportunity.

    • Raul Lopez

      Good one, it’s still bullish!

      Good luck!

  • Muhammad Ali Awan

    Hi Raul, what is the right time to draw S&R.

    • Raul Lopez

      Hello Muhammad, there is no “right” time… You draw them when you are trading… that’s it!

  • forexft

    Hi Raul, what is the main time frame you use for trading? When you take a trade how long do you hold it on average? Days or hours? I assume it depends on market conditions but it is to have an idea…

    • Raul Lopez

      I do my long term analysis based on the Daily (most of the times) and take my trades off the 15, 30 M and 1H charts… And you guessed, sometimes it hits my TP orders in a few hours but sometimes I need to hold it for several days!

      Look, I know it’s kind of difficult to hold it at times, but the market does what its going to do, not what you want it to do, with that being said, sometimes we need to be patient (reaaaaaaaally patient)

      Good luck!

      • Guest

        Thanks for your answer.
        As far as swiss is concerned I think bullish bias with bars forming bull channel. So that is more buy the dips for now. I wonder how far this channel might go though…

      • forexft

        Thanks for your answer.
        As far as swiss is concerned I think bullish
        bias with bars forming bull channel. So that is more buy the dips for
        now. I wonder how far this channel might go though..

        • Raul Lopez

          Yep, it’s definitely bullish… Good luck!

  • Daniel

    Bought at 0.8960 with stops running at 0.8949. I took the 1 hr pin as rejection of the green box area you mentioned in the above commentary…

    • Raul Lopez

      Did you get stopped out or moved your SL?

      • Daniel

        Thanks for asking Raul, I exited Monday morning for a small profit. I would never move my stop loss as i have already decided my risk on amount…

        • Raul Lopez

          Good to hear that!

  • Chad Hogan

    Tania had a buy stop above sf box but decided to cancel that order considering it was a friday night here in Australia. I am waiting for a break out as you are. Interpretation of important levels varies between people, wouldn’t you agree? Actually there are quite a few pairs at the moment ranging well at important levels. I expect next weeks trading will require a lot of discernment.

    • Raul Lopez

      That was a good trading decision, also today was memorial day… So not much movement was expected… I agree that there are plenty of pairs trading at an important level, in the following days the market is going to be interesting…

      Good luck Chad!

  • Higher highs and higher lows (tops and bottoms). Seems like it should be a breakthrough move next week! Let us know if you take the trade Raul!

    • Raul Lopez

      Looks like it Craig… We’ll see what happens on Monday!

      Sure, I’ll let you know if I take a trade here.

      Have a great weekend!

  • Eric Aroh

    I already entered long (@0.8959) two days ago (11:20PM GMT). So far the results have been mixed – it has been micro-ranging with no clear direction. Maybe I should have waited (a little bit longer) till it crossed 0.8965. My first TP level is set at 0.9020 (@23.6% Fib Ext); confluenced with a swing low (01Feb2013, 780 pips). 01Feb2013-22Apr2013.

    • Raul Lopez

      Good luck with that trade Eric!

      I wouldnt use FIB extensions to set your TP though :S

      Good luck again!

  • Henry

    Hi Raul
    Im looking for a strong bullish candle rather than just a break through, and then possibly a retracement back 0.8929. Before i would go long.

    • Raul Lopez

      Alright… let me know if you take a trade here!

      Good luck!