How to trade the CADCHF

Non farm Payrolls report

Hey traders, how did you do with non-farm payrolls report?

Did it impact any of your trades?

Do you agree with me that the NFP doesn’t have the impact it used to have a few years ago?

I remember those days when the market moved 100 or 150 pips a few minutes after the NFP report… The straddle strategy was the way to go there.

But those days are gone now…

The market doesn’t react the way it used to… Now it just moves a few pips up, a few pips down then it ends up where it al started…

What do you think? do you still take advantage of the NFP report or other fundamental announcements?

CADCHF Trading Plan

Last tuesday I write about my plan to trade the CADCHF… One possibility was to trade from the bottom of the range (which was a very good idea), the other possibility was the breakout of the range.

But it was kind of difficult to trade that breakout because of the NFP report, so I took my entry stop orders out before the news announcement.

It is now trading above that range, and here is my plan to trade it:

CADCHF 1H

The long term market conditions haven’t changed since last tuesday, so please refer to the CADCHF analysis I did last tuesday for that info…

Now, I have two possibilities:

  1. A retracement back to the ST support level (0.8359), if the market forms significant upward pressure around that level I’ll definitely go long.
  2. If the market retraces back and we font get a signal around the ST level, we can take the breakout of the previous high (orange line).

I’d feel comfortable taking any of the two possible scenarios.

Now, remember there are no bank tomorrow in the US, so don’t expect a lot of volume, starting today.

Your Turn

What do you think about my trading plan?

Are you going to trade it?

What other pairs are you monitoring?

Share your thoughts

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Raul Lopez

I've been trading the markets for more than 15 years. I believe the best way to trade is by adapting to the market conditions. You can learn it too, join our community .

  • Budi

    Hi Raul,

    If because of some reason we choose to use a broker that doesn’t has some cross pairs, yes we still can trade the cross pairs by creating synthetic pairs.

    What I want to know is how can we set stop loss and take profit target on a synthetic pair? Whether is there a way to do that or we have to watch the trade all the time?

    Thanks..

    • Raul Lopez

      That’s correct Budi, you’ll need to watch your trade… Or better yet, switch brokers :)

  • royco

    got it, Traded AudNzd this a.m. in the box for a few pips , using your method-
    ‘clear’ pair, direction, wait, LT exit

    • Raul Lopez

      Great! Good one Roy!

  • royco

    my bad – what I meant, when drawing S/R levels .. candles, or bar, or line

    • Raul Lopez

      Ahh ok… What you need to do Roy is to consider these S&R as zones instead of plain levels… You dont have to draw them at the exact level…

  • histomi

    thanks alots raul..
    i will make sure i do that…
    firstly i want to study your trademanifesto…
    i think that would help…
    cheers!!!!

    • Raul Lopez

      No problem Histomi, let me know if you need anything else.

  • royco

    Drawing trend lines – I notice some discrepancies candle, vs, bar, vs line as to
    close/ highest , .. any recommendations??

    • Raul Lopez

      Hello Roy, I dont use trendlines… they are kind of subjective… I prefer regular S&R levels…

  • histomi

    and also which broker can you suggest that dont slip all the time….
    the ones that dont widen the spread during news releases….?

    • Raul Lopez

      Choose one of the largest brokers, the ones that have been around for many years are the ones that I’d trust…

      But most brokers widen their spreads and slip during important announcements, that’s unavoidable…

      I wouldnt suggest you to trade during important announcements.

  • histomi

    what a nice strategy, i would love to learn the breakout strategy, cause i use M.A crossover on 1hrs chart……

    • Raul Lopez

      Hello Histomi,

      Please keep reading my blog, including my previous articles, there is a lot of info that will help you get started…

  • royco

    CADCHF – in original analysis what was the logic to assume would retrace back to .8359

    • Raul Lopez

      Hey Roy, most of the time, when the market breaks through an important level, and for some reason you didnt take the breakout, the next possibility is a retracement back the breakout level…

      Its not uncommon to see that type of retracements, sometimes the market retraces back to confirme the breakout level.

      But again, the first trade possibility is the breakout of the range.

      HTH!

      • Did you end up taking the breakout of the previous high? It is above that currently. Have a great weekend!

        • Raul Lopez

          Hey Craig, nope, I didnt because it never retraced back…

          I have the feeling though that we’ll get an opportunity to go long pretty soon…

          Did you take it?

  • Chad Hogan

    No, no slippage. I prob shouldnt of left it though. Better to have good management tgan goodluck. . Tania held her trade as she took a breakout of an earlier range and was out in front. Will say hello. Have a great weekend!

    • Raul Lopez

      That’s good Chad… You know something, the NFP isnt as risky as it used to be… so maybe it was a good idea and I just was being extra cautiuos?

      You too have a great weekend!

  • Tim van Niekerk

    Hi Raul
    Any reason for choosing the CADCHF over the EURCAD?
    They almost mirror each other.

    • Raul Lopez

      Because of the profit potential on both of them, the one on the CADCHF is larger…

      • Tim van Niekerk

        Makes sense. Thanks Raul. Keep up the good work.

        • Raul Lopez

          No problem Tim, let me know if you have any other question!!!

  • Chad Hogan

    Hi m8,

    I kept my breakout order through the news as I was confident that the cad trade balance would be positive. If we get price action on retracement baxk to support I might add to this trade? Cadjpy trade is also looking good. I usually close my trades through the NFP but I thought the risk was worth it this time!

    • Raul Lopez

      Hey Mate,

      Did you get any slippage on your entry order? How is Tania doing with that trade???

      And yes, if you get a new opportunity to go long, keep adding, as long as you have nothing at risk form your first trade…

      I know, CADJPY is looking great, it’s got plenty of room before it hits the next resistance level…

      Say hello to Tania!

      Good luck!

  • Muhammad Ali Awan

    Hi Raul,
    CADCHF is at 0.8403, what do you suggest, should I go long or short.

    • Raul Lopez

      What do you mean long or short? If you have been reading my analysis you know that I never trade against the market condition…

      But you cant trade right now just because you want to trade… you need to wait for the right moment…

      Good luck!

  • David

    I like plan 1 but I hate plan 2, I really do not like breakout trading.

    • Raul Lopez

      Hey David, I know, for some reason a lot of traders dont like breakout trades… I’m ok with them, as long as we are in a clear market condition and far from any LT important level…

      Good luck!