Here is how I’m going to trade the USDCAD

canadian dollar

Hey trader, how did you do last week with the FOMC Statement and the NFP report?

And you thought everything was over? I dont think so…

Later this week we’ve got a few important announcements we need to be careful about:

  • NZD Unemployment rate
  • AUD Unemployment rate
  • GBP Interest rate
  • EUR Interest rate
  • JPY Monetary policy statement

Among others…

This is why you should take in consideration the fundamental releases in your trading strategy…

How do you deal with them?

Anyways… This is how I’m going to trade the USDCAD

USDCAD Long Term Analysis

It looks like the USDCAD already broke through an important resistance level, and as you already know, when the market breaks through an important level it is likely to continue its way up until it reaches its next LT level…

Here is the daily chart:


So, the USDCAD is likely to continue its way up until it reaches its next LT level which is at 1.1223.

Now, we need to confirm this with our short term analysis…

USDCAD Short term analysis

This is how the hourly chart looks like:


We cant take a breakout trade here because the USDCAD is near an important level and most false breakouts occur here…

Also, we still need the confirmation of the upper resistance level (it has been rejected only once), so I’m still waiting for a retracement so we get the confirmation of that level and then I’ll trade a breakout of the previous high…

Your Turn

Are you currently trading the USDCAD? What other pairs are you monitoring/trading?

Share your thoughts

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Raul Lopez

I've been trading the markets for more than 15 years. I believe the best way to trade is by adapting to the market conditions. You can learn it too, join our community .

  • Eviano

    Hello, for the purpose of learning from you, the USDCAD reversed as rightly predicted by you but instead of stoping around 1.0938 which was the new ST Resistance level, it went down to 1.0911. in such case, is the uptrend still in view?

    • Raul Lopez

      Hello Eviano, the USDCAD retraced back to the main LT level, if you take a look at the short term range, you’ll see that it is still ranging inside that range, so we need to wait a little longer…

      I’d like to see the USDCD trading outside the ST range in order to consider a new opportunity here.

      Have a great weekend!

  • Denny Mursali

    Hi Raul,

    Coming news for CAD on Friday. both are very positive.
    Ivey PMI Forecast: 53.0, Previous: 46.9
    Employment Change Forecast:20.0K, Previous: 9.4K

    if actual is in-line with forecast, USDCAD will most likely retrace back.
    there is no important news for USD this week.

    how do you think?

    • Raul Lopez

      I’ll need to see how the market reacts to these announcements…

      The USDCAD is trading right now at a level where it could get rejected, so I’m closely watching its behavior…

      We’ll see what happens!

  • Eric Aroh

    Hi Raul,

    I did not trade the recent news, because I don’t trade thenews . However, I sometimes trade the reversals – along the LT trend – after 15-20
    minutes of the news release.

    I entered USDCAD pair LONG (@
    1.0823) on 29July2014 after confirming a bullish breakout off the top of a
    descending triangle chart pattern. I exited today (@ 1.0960) when I
    noticed a retracement. I will enter the trade, again, on LONG when the
    retracement looses steam (between 1.0926 & 1.0947 – corresponding
    with the 50% & 61.8% Fib retracement levels respectively).

    • Raul Lopez

      Yeah, me neither… I dont trade the news, but I need to taje them in consideration, because sometimes I need to hold my trades during these announcements…

      Congrats for that trade! Nice one…

  • TasosK

    Hi Raul,

    Thank you for the eye-opening analysis!
    I’m monitoring this pair along with USD/JPY, EUR/NZD, GBP/CAD and of course GBP/NZD (thanks to your previous article..:-) BTW, it looks promising again, don’t you think?).
    Best regards,

    • Raul Lopez

      Hello Tasos, you are right… the GBPNZD is about to trade the ST resistance level, which will trigger a bullish condition…

      Now, we need to be careful because this movement is the result of the NZD unemployment report…

      Good luck!