I’m going to short the EURUSD


A few weeks back I analyzed the EURUSD… back then it was trading near a long term level and talked about two possible scenarios:

  • Bullish condition, if it broke through the upper resistance level
  • Bearish condition, if it broke through the lower support level

I favored the later one, specially because we had more than 500 pips before we reach the next LT level…

And you know what… that’s exactly what happened!

The EURUSD broke through the bottom of the range, triggering a bearish condition. And now, I’m going to look for short opportunities.

EURUSD Long Term Analysis

Let me show you how the daily chart looks like today:


It broke through that support level and it is now likely to continue its way down until it reaches its next LT support level around 1.2813.

So we still got more than 370 pips before we hit the next LT level.

Now I need to prepare our entry, and to do that, we need to look at the short term charts.

EURUSD Short Term Analysis

Most of the time I take my trades off the hourly chart… but sometimes we need to adapt.

If we look at the 1H chart, you’ll see a tiny range, very difficult to read… But if you look at the 15M chart instead, you’ll see a cry well defined range.

Here is how that range looks like:


Ok, so we’ve got a bearish condition, a clear range on the short term charts… that means that we can trade a breakout of the range…

Here are the details of my pending order:

Sell stop entry: 1.3167 – spread
Stop Loss: 1.3200
Take Profit: open

Your Turn

Are you currently trading the EURUSD?

Are you going to taje this signal?

What other currency pairs are you monitoring?

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Raul Lopez

I've been trading the markets for more than 15 years. I believe the best way to trade is by adapting to the market conditions. You can learn it too, join our community .

  • Nuraj

    Helo Raul,
    Pls Help Me, I Lost More Than $500 Now,I’m From Sri lanka,in my country $500 is big amount For Me,Now I Have $140 In My Account.pls help me to recover my loss.thanks,i’m waiting for reply from you.

    • Raul Lopez

      Hello Nuraj,

      sorry to hear that… What I’d recommend you is to stop trading your real capital if you dont have a system that can give you consistent results…

      Try to understand how the market moves, stop chasing the market and adapt to the market conditions instead… that’s the only way to get consistent results…

      Read my blog, my ebook!!! develop a system that fits your trading style and risk profile…

      Good luck!

      • Nuraj

        yes i keep reading your blog,can you give me some good signals in short term,Like h1 time frame

        • Raul Lopez

          Just read my articles… I dont give signals!

          • Nuraj

            Ok Thanks.

  • Chris Williams

    Just shows you can’t be too careful with those gaps!

    • Raul Lopez

      Yep, sometimes the market fills them and on some others the market never returns…

      Good luck!

  • Varahala Babu Chelluru

    raul lopez…can we go short trade on nzd/cad ?

    • Raul Lopez

      I guess you can… cant you? Depends on what you are looking at… But I think it is trading in a bearish condition.

  • Budi

    Stop Loss at 1.3200….?

    • Raul Lopez

      That’s what it says…

      • Budi

        So, when to reentry again?

        • Raul Lopez

          We need to wait for now…

  • Chad Hogan


    Ha ha.. My order is exactly the same, not kidding! I didnt copy you, we must be looking at our charts the same. The market does look very extended though. Lets see how we go..

    • Raul Lopez

      The way to go Mate!

      We’ll see what happens!

  • Hi Raul. I went short the EUR last week and so far nearly 200 pips. As it’s still looking good I added to it today. May be a little premature but thought it’s looking good for a big fall. Time will tell.

    • Raul Lopez

      You’ve got a great trade there Andy… And what you just did was awesome, increasing the size of your trade as it moves on your favor…

      Yep, as you say, only time will tell… But it is definitely bearish, so it is more likely to continue its way down…

      We’ll see what happens!

      Good luck!

      • Thanks, Raul. I will keep a running stop on this one. Problem I have is where to place the stop. But then we all have that I suppose. :-)

        • Raul Lopez

          That’s right, we all have the same problem… Right now I have my SL where I initially set it… I wont trail it until the market moves further down… we need to give the market enough room to breathe…

          Good luck!

          • The SL seems to be a razors edge. Where to put it andd when to move – if at all.
            Question, Raul. Do you use RSI and what should the settings be?

          • Raul Lopez

            I dont use technical indicators Andy!


          • I also heard it’s best not to use indicators. price action and support/resistance only, yes?

          • Raul Lopez

            Depends on the trader Andy… I dont like to use technical indicators, but I’m sure there are successful traders using them…

  • Budi

    Hi Raul,

    What do you think about USD/JPY ?

    • Raul Lopez

      Budi, USDJPY is definitely bullish… ST levels are not yet clear, so we need to wait a little longer…

  • vtruong

    yes, that’s what I am short it at the moment :)

    • Raul Lopez

      Good luck!!!

      Let me know how you handle the trade…

  • Hey Raul,

    I too was looking at this Sunday evening. Looks like a great opportunity. I was also hoping it would fill the gap and then short, but looks like still ready to head south ;)

    • Raul Lopez

      I hope so… we’ll see what happens!

  • Waqas Khan

    this time i am not agreed because until the gap fills i am not going to short the euro

    • Raul Lopez

      Hey Waqas, thank you for your feedback and comment!

      We’ll see what the market does… But I dont believe that it HAS to fill that gap… sometimes it does, sometimes it doesnt…

      We’ll see….

      Good luck Waqas!

      • Waqas Khan

        thanks Mr Raul goodluck to u as well

        • Raul Lopez

          No problem Waqas!

          • Waqas Khan

            i should have listen to you

          • Raul Lopez

            Hello Waqas… it’s too soon to tell the result of this trade… We’ll see if it continues to move in the same direction…

          • dominiek

            is like opportunity’s present… also audjpy broke an important resistance . eu short has been an opportunity for several months now…

          • Raul Lopez

            Yep, AUDJPY its also bullish…

            We’ll see what happens!

      • I agree, Raul. I was certain the gap on the AUDNZD woulkd fill so shorted and it hasn’t happened yet. Won’t hold my breath. :)

        • Raul Lopez

          Yep, we need to be careful with those gaps… at the end the market moves in the direction of the sentiment of the market…

          Good luck Andy!

          • Thanks, Raul. Good luck to you also.

          • Raul Lopez

            Thanks Andy!