I’m taking this short signal

Written by Raul Lopez on . Posted in Trades & Analysis. 36 Comments

GBPCAD

Hey trader, hope everything is going fine so far this week with your trading (and everything else).

What currency pairs are you monitoring this week?

Seems like most traders are focusing in the JPY crosses, and I dont blame them, I’ve also taken a few trades with them… they’ve been trading smoothly, which is one of the main things that I look for when searching for trade opportunities.

But there are others that are also trading in a clear market condition… such as the GBPCAD.

The spread in the GBPCAD isn’t that bad, its between 2 to 5 pips on most brokers, and I know some traders use the pip spread to determine whether to trade or not a currency pair…

So its not that bad isn’t it?

Ok, so here is the reason why I decided to set a pending order here.

GBPCAD Long Term Analysis

Here is what the GBPCAD long term charts looks like:

GBPCAD 1D

Its clear that the GBPCAD already got rejected from an important long term resistance level.

One of the main principles of price actions tells us that the market moves from one level to the other, so if it got rejected from that resistance level, it si likely to continue its way down until it reaches its next LT support level at 1.7605

So it is trading in a clear bearish condition.

GBPCAD Short Term Analysis

Here is the range on the hourly chart:

GBPCAD 1H

Details of my trade:

Entry stop order: 1.7856
SL: 1.7910
TP: 1.7645

We’ll see how it goes…

Your Turn

Are you currently trading the GBPCAD? What do you think about my signal?

What other currency pairs are you monitoring/trading? Any JPY cross?

Share your thoughts!

Tags: , ,

Raul Lopez

I've been trading the markets for more than 15 years. I believe the best way to trade is by adapting to the market conditions. You can learn it too, join our community .
  • pduarte

    Hello Raul,

    I just have a comment to say about the market.

    “IT’S ALIVE……”

    And that is goood….

    Cheer’s,

    Paulo

    • Raul Lopez

      hahahahahahahahah

      It’s alive Bro!!!!

      Good luck!

  • Varahala Babu

    hi raul ….the above gbp/cad trade can we still hold the sell stop pending order ?

    • Raul Lopez

      Hello Varahala,

      Nope, that pending order is no longer valid… Please close it (for now).

      Good luck!

      • dominiek

        Hi Raul… i think this time ur gdp/cad trade is valid… most likely will trigger also… market is bearish now

  • Johanna

    Bad move on my side Raul. The trend is going down on LT. Learning from my mistakes.. Getting there.

    • Raul Lopez

      Everyday is a learning experience Johanna, even for the most experienced traders!

      Keep up the good work!

  • Johanna

    Hi Raul
    I’m currently going long on AUDJPY. Not sure where it will end. Any advise

    • dominiek

      don’t do it Johanna,… from what i see on the chart this market might go down… some weeks ago a very strong bearish signal was formed… bears very strong in the aud

      • Raul Lopez

        Hello Dominiek, thanks for your feedback… I agree with you if the AUDJPY breaks the bottom of the range…

      • Johanna

        I didn’t instead I went short and collected. Thnx dominic.

    • Raul Lopez

      Hello Johanna, The AUDJPY is trading near an important level… we still need to wait for it to break either extreme of the range… Take a look at the short term charts, the range its quite clear…

      But I have a bearish bias on all JPY crosses…

      Good luck!

      • Johanna

        GBPCAD as analyzed by Eric. Thanks for the advise guys

        • Johanna

          Raul you also spoke about it going short.

          • Raul Lopez

            Hello Johanna, I mentioned there are a few JPY crosses in a bearish condition, but also mentioned a few were too close to an important level… AUDJPY is one of them…

            Thanks you for your comments!

  • Eric Aroh

    Hi Raul,

    A very good example of a trade that requires patience – to follow the market condition and not guess.

    My analyses are:

    LT trend is ranging (general market trend).

    In determining the market condition I looked at both the 4-hr and 1-hr charts, and arrived at the following:

    (a) 4-Hr: market condition indicated ranging (1.7878 to 1.8055), but with bullish condition within the range after being bounced off the 1.7878 support. If I was forced to place a trade I will STRADDLE: LONG @ 1.8062 with TP at 1.8155 -(93 pips), AND SHORT @ 1.7805 with TP @ 1.7594- (211 pips). In real terms – I will check the 1 Hr chart before even straddling.

    (b) 1 Hr: market condition also ranging, and also currently bullish (1.7878 to 1.8055). At current price (1.7982) a scalper will aim for 73 pips (TP @ 1.8062 but maybe forced to consider a fraction of this – maybe at the 50% Fib retracement).

    I will still WAIT to see if the current upward movement will bounce off the 1.8055 resistance level, and trade the FULL range (1.8055 – 1.7878 = 177 pips). This is 156% of the past weekly volatility (113 pips) of this pair. A fraction of this say 95 pips will do.

    My action: WAIT, to see if the current bullish condition (in the 1 Hr chart) gets rejected at the 1.8055; I then go SHORT. However, if it breaks through I will look for opportunity to go LONG.

    Thanks

    • Raul Lopez

      Hello Eric, Good to hear from you!

      Yep, I’m glad my trade wasnt triggered!

      For now, we need to wait, because it retraced back to the LT level, therefore we need to widen up the ST range…

      I’d be on the sidelines in the GBPCAD until I get better short term levels.

      I sent you an email!

      Cheers

  • Sibongeleni Bravo Hadebe

    Why did you specifically choose entry at 1.7856?

    • Raul Lopez

      I think that if the market reaches that level, the likelihood that it will continue down increases…

      We’ll see what happens!

  • Sibongeleni Bravo Hadebe

    I just even confirmed the trade on the 4hr chart, the 1.78982 level has been broken by a very powerful bearish candle.

    • Raul Lopez

      Good…

  • Varahala Babu

    thanks raul…..i have placed this trade..

    • Raul Lopez

      Good luck Varahala! We’ll have to patiently wait until the market triggers this order…

      we’ll see what happens!

  • tp

    short eurcad. watch.

    • Raul Lopez

      Good luck TP, but I dont have the EURCAD in a bearish condition!

      • tp

        got killed, lost 4k.

        • Raul Lopez

          Hello TP, good luck next time… the EURCAD is actually trading near an important level, so we need to wait for the market to get out of the range before looking for a trade opportunity…

          Good luck!

  • dominiek

    last week job reports from canada was outstanding but traders completely ignored it… can a currency rally in that case???? CAD very weak… only reason it went down this morning is because of the pound… this time i disagree with you Raul!

    • Raul Lopez

      Yeah… well, you never know how the fundamentals are going to affect the market…

      Only time will tell!

      Good luck!

  • dominiek

    funny how different ways of trading contradict… i am long here for 3 weeks already… based on w1. But i agree if it triggers your entry it will keep on going down. But according to me it will go higher (i hope)

    • Raul Lopez

      Hello Dominiek,

      You are right, we are trading against each other…

      Mine hasn’t triggered yet though, so for now, good luck! But once it triggers (if it does trigger), I’m going to take that luck back!!! hehehehe

      Just kidding…

      Good luck Dominiek! Hope both of us take something from this trade!

      • dominiek

        haha… you are such a gentelmen… that shows you are a good trader… bad traders are always nervous and stressed!!
        But your entry will not be triggered raul!!! (i hope) thanks for your signals!!!

        • Raul Lopez

          Thanks! I’m glad they have been useful…

          • dominiek

            hi Raul… happy for you the trade did not trigger… looks like resistance line on D1 is broken… according to me this market will go very high… 1000’s of pips…

          • Raul Lopez

            I think I’m more happy because of that Dominiek!

            The way I see it, its now back at an important level, so I still dont know which way its going… Not because it didnt go down, means that it will go up…

            So for me, I need to wait a little longer. What I’ve done is to increase the size of the short term range, once it gets out of that range I’ll start to look for trade opportunities, but for now, I’ll stay on the sidelines on the GBPCAD…

            And congrats for your trade!

      • dominiek

        Raul… pls tell me what you think: on 14 september there was a very strong piercing line on W1. On D1 there is now a resistance line formed… it it breaks it … dont you think this will go a lot higher? Also monthly chart… strongly bullish

ProTradingNow

Free Education

Other

Contact

info@protradingnow.com