Its been a while since the last time we had a word ha?
By the way… I really appreciate your emails, Its good to know that quite a few people read and use my analysis to take trade decisions… So I’ve got a surprise for you… they are back!!!
So how is it going? How is your trading going in the last couple of months?
Please let me know in the comment section.
I’m USD Bullish
If you have been following me for a while you know I’m a pure technician…
I understand sometimes we cant ignore fundamental releases and fundamental aspects about the market… its part of trading.
But its a very different thing than taking decisions based on those “assumptions”. Because they all are assumptions.
How many times you’ve seen a very good number in and the market drops???
Or a very bad figure and the market surges…
Thousands and thousands!
That’s the reason you cant make desiciones based on fundamentals!!!! (at least not anymore, maybe 6 or 10 years ago it was a different story).
Anyway… I’m USD bullish
I think the USD will go up on most majors and if you’ve got a short position on USD you will get crushed.
Technicians analyze data! How the market is likely to behave based on past behavior.
I want to show you this particular chart:
US Dollar Index
I know most of you already know, but just in case, the USD Index is a measure of the value of the US Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK and CHF).
I’m always interested in the way the market behaves when it get close to an important S&R level.
Do you see what we’ve got at the bottom of the range?
Very strong upward pressure!
Which tells me that the market is likely to continue its way up, at least until it reaches the next LT resistance level at 99.91.
Its very simple, there are two possible things that a market could do when it gets close to an important level: Get rejected from there or break through that level.
If you look at the USD Index, it looks like its being rejected from there.
And by the main principle of price action: Most of the time the market moves from one level to the other, you know that it is likely to reach the next resistance level.
End of story.
What do you think?
You could say, hey Raul, this is B******T, how can this help me trade the forex market?
Let me show you a few charts…
Very strong downward pressure.
Very strong upward pressure.
Even on the Swedish Krona, very strong upward pressure.
Get my point?
Let me know know what you think on the comment section.