Tag: Euro analysis

Euro Flag

You know that before taking a trade I like to do a complete analysis of both, the long term and the short term charts.

I do this to make sure that both, long and short term charts are pointing in the same direction, therefore the likelihood of my trade moving in the intended direction increases.

But there is another reason of why I like to do this…

I while back I was reading an article about Warren Buffet and how he thought about risk… He said something about risk that became part of the way I see the market right now:

“Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing”

You know something, he is dead right about it!

From that moment, I understood that it is very important to try to understand what the market is doing right now.

Once you understand what the market is doing right now, you also know what the market is likely to do, and having that information could be the difference between a profitable trader and a trader with negative results.

What do you think?

Anyways… here is why I think there is a possible 500 pip trade in the EURUSD.

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EURUSD: Retracement it is…

Since last December the EURUSD has been falling like a rock, it follow through on January and the first days of February. But we might be on the way of a small retracement (at least to the next LT resistance level):

EURUSD
EURUSD

It broke the resistance of the short term range and it is likely to continue its way up until it reaches at least, the next LT resistance level.

My Plan:

Look for long opportunities if the EURUSD keeps trading above 1.3707. Next LT resistance level is at 1.3846

All short opportunities will be ignored.

Trade Safe

Raul Lopez
StraightForex
http://www.protradingnow.com/

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If you take a look at the EURUSD daily or 4H chart it will look as if it was already rejected from the LT support level, but it hasn’t… yet:

EURUSD
EURUSD

I think it would be safer to start looking for long opportunities when the EURUSD breaks the 1.3927 for the upside (it’s pretty close though), only then I will be looking for long opportunities.

Trade Safe!
Raul Lopez

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EURUSD: Long Term Outlook

What do you think about EURUSD movements in the last two days? Interesting aren’t they (and better if you were short). I was thinking about how the EURUSD weekly chart would look like, and here are my conclusions:

EURUSD
EURUSD

– It started to range at the long term support level, first it broke the shorter term range for the upside, triggering a bullish market condition, but then it came back to the range.

– Then it (strongly) broke through the important LT support level and it will probably continue in this way until it hits the next LT support level.

Now, remember we are talking about the weekly charts, and it could take the EURUSD a few weeks to get there. What we are sure though is that it is in a very clear bearish market condition in the 1W charts.

Trade Safe!
Raul Lopez

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The EURUSD its been trading in a medium term range in between 1.4508 and 1.4316. Apparently it is being rejected from the support level at 1.4316:

EURUSD
EURUSD

We need further confirmation though to start looking for opportunities, because right now it is trading near the short term resistance level.

My Plan:

If the EURUSD breaks 1.4387 for the upside I will be looking for long trade opportunities

If the Euro breaks 1.4335 for the downside I’ll be looking for short trade opportunities.

Trade Safe
Raul Lopez

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Hope you all had a great and relaxed weekend because I think we could see pretty interesting moves this week.

The EURUSD is trading near a long term support level, 1.4517 and it has created a short term range in between 1.4540 and 1.4488:

EURUSD
EURUSD

We need a further confirmation in order to start looking for a trade opportunity.

My Trading Plan:

If the EURUSD breaks 1.4540 for the upside, I will be looking for long trade opportunities.

If the EURUSD breaks 1.4488 for the downside I’ll be looking for short trade opportunities.

I will do nothing it the Euro keeps trading in between the short term range.

Trade Safe!
Raul Lopez

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Even though there has been a small retracement in the EURUSD in this session, we are still in a bearish market condition:

EURUSD
EURUSD

Last Friday the Euro broke an important resistance level, so it is likely to continue its way down until it reaches the next long term support level around 1.4517.

Here is my trading plan:

As long as the EURUSD trades below 1.4683 I will be looking for short trade opportunities. My next LT support level is at 1.4517

All long opportunities will be ignored.

Trade Safe!
Raul Lopez

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EURUSD: See you at 1.5310

Finally the EURUSD broke the top of the 4H range it traded for about 2 weeks:

EURUSD
EURUSD

It is in a clear bullish market condition, meaning only long opportunities are in play.

Here is my trading plan:

As long as the EURUSD keeps trading above 1.5038 I will be looking for long trade opportunities. The next long term resistance level is around 1.5340

All short opportunities will be ignored.

Trade Safe!
Raul Lopez

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Both the EURUSD and the USDCHF are trading in a 4H range; please take a look at the next charts:

EURUSD & USDCHF
EURUSD & USDCHF

Does it mean that these to currency pairs are not tradable today?

Nope, remember how we define the market condition, how the market reacts to important long term support and resistance levels, for instance, if the USDCHF gets rejected from the LT support level, we’ll be in a bullish market condition and if the EURUSD gets rejected from the resistance level, we´ll all be in a bearish market condition.

So today I’ll be looking for a trade in the direction of the market condition (if I get a good risk-reward ration on my trades).

Trade Safe
Raul Lopez

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Since last Monday we had a wild downside movement in the EURUSD, but it entered into a congestion zone where it was difficult to find clear support or resistance level, thus being difficult to trade.

This morning the EURUSD broke that congestion zone, and it is clearer now:

EURUSD
EURUSD

We might have a small retracement, but it is in a clear bearish market condition. And what is more interesting is that the next LT support level is a few hundred pips away :)

My Trading Plan:

As long as the Euro keeps trading below 1.4761 I will be looking for short trading opportunities. All take profit orders will be placed above the next support level: 1.4515

All long trading opportunities will be ignored.

Trade Safe

Raul Lopez

Dont forget to register to our FREE Trading Room

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