Hey trader, how is the market behaving lately?
Its been quite slow hasn’t it? In most currency pairs it has been ranging and most of the time, in a not well defined range, making it very difficult to trade.
Take a look at the EURUSD, its been like that, its been ranging since the last week of January, with only one major quick move (fundamentally driven by the way)… but other than that, its been slow, not well defined, etc.
I wonder how traders that only trade the EURUSD are doing… probably not very well…
Hey trader, hope everything is going well on your end!
Since my last trade in the GBPJPY, I’ve been getting a lot of emails of traders asking me if there is any room left to trade the GBPJPY…
Now, let me tell you something, its not that I traded the GBPJPY because I like it, I traded because there was enough room to take a trade (good amount of pips by the way)… But right now, I dont thing its the right time to trade it again…
Because its trading near an important level!
But you dont have to worry about it! We are not here to trade only the GBPJPY, the idea is to find the clearest currency pairs to trade right now, the ones that have clear swings, clear levels, etc… And if you look at other JPY crosses, that’s exactly what you are going to find!
Here are a few of them…
Hey trader, how is your trading going so far this week? What currency pairs are you trading?
Please don’t tell me the EURUSD…
I know you like to trade the EURUSD because of the spread, but take a look at it, specially at its short term charts… its all over the place.. .
No clear support and resistance levels, no clear swings, I don’t see anything clear on that currency pair.
So please, if you only trade the EURUSD, expand your horizon, you’ll see that there are better opportunities.
The GBPJPY for instance…
As promised, here is the analysis of the currency pairs I’m currently looking for trade opportunities.
Disclaimer: These are just the pairs that I’m going to trade (looking for trades), this should not be taken as trade recommendations. If you don’t agree with this, please stop reading now and close this window.
This is how I analyze the market
First I analyze the long term charts and look for the currency pairs that have the clearest market condition (clear swings and S&R levels).
Once I have a clear market condition, I look for my entries on the short term charts.
Hey traders, hope everything is great with your trading, life, etc…
Yesterday was a very complicated day for me, and this time not because of the market, but because I was very very very tired…
I ran a marathon (42 kms or 26.2 miles) on sunday. And oh boy, what an experience.
When I was at the 35th km, I was thinking to myself, why am I doing this? At this point in the race, every step is painful, its cold outside, etc.
But when I crossed the line, everything made sense, the satisfaction you feel at that moment is like nothing else, it would be like winning the most difficult trade ever…
I’ll show you a picture of me crossing the line on my next article…
Anyway, lets get to the market…
As you already know, every good trade starts with good analysis. It doesn’t matter what system you use, what timeframes you trade, the tools you use, etc.
The GBPJPY is trading in a bullish market condition, earlier this morning the GBPJPY broke through the short term resistance level triggering a bullish MC. What is most interesting though is the weekly chart:
The GBPJPY is trading near a W support level, and the next LT level is at 150.44… so what do you think? Would you hold your trade for a month for the possibility to get 900 pips??? Tricky isn’t it? Remember we are talking about the weekly chart here, and there are 1D levels in between.
What would you do?
It’s interesting that from the currency pairs & crosses that I’m monitoring right now, the yen crosses are the ones with the most interesting market condition, including:
EURJPY, GBPJPY, NZDJPY, AUDJPY
These crosses are trading in a very clear bearish market condition, but that’s not all, the next LT support level is a few hundred pips away on all of them.
But one pair I don’t like right now is the USDJPY, not clear market condition, no consistent support & resistance lvls…
Weird isn’t it?
Be careful tomorrow with the NFP announcement
Last Wednesday I wrote about the GBPJPY, we were waiting for the pound-yen to break the short term range, and guess what?… it just broke that range:
The GBPJPY broke the short term resistance level setting us up for a bullish market condition.
Here is my plan:
As long as the GBPJPY trades above 144.12 I will be looking for long trade opportunities. My next LT resistance level is at 146.65
All short trade opportunities will be ignored.
In the last weeks the JPY crosses have been trading in a pretty wide range, the GBPJPY for instance went from around 150.35 to around 139.79 to 148.20 and right now it is trading at 142.55, this is more than 2,500 in a little more than 3 weeks. These are the swings that we need to stalk:
Right now the GBPJPY is trading around the LT support level of 142.62, in the short term charts this zone accounts for: 144.02 and 142.17 (quite large short term range). So right now I’m waiting for the market to break that range before starting to look for a trade opportunity.
So here is my Trading Plan:
If the Pound-yen breaks the 144.02 ST resistance level, I will be looking for long trade opportunities.
If the GBPJPY breaks the 142.14 ST support level, I will be looking for short trade opportunities.
If it continues to trade in the ST range I will do nothing.
It appears that the market is reacting now, most pairs are trading in a clear market condition (finally after two weeks of very few opportunities) and there are good opportunities in some pairs and crosses.
However, there is one cross that continues to trade in a undefined range (the most difficult market condition to trade since we have no clear support or resistance levels), and it is the GBPJPY.
I know many traders like the GBPJPY because it moves pretty fast and the average daily range is greater than most currency pairs, but these weeks have been difficult to find any opportunity in this one, just take a look at the next chart:
This one has no clear support or resistance levels, the GBPJPY stalled around 150ish, so the best thing to do here would be to wait for the market to break the range before looking for any trade.
My Trading Plan
Forget about GBPJPY