Have you noticed that the EURUSD moved down a few hundred pips in the last days breaking important LT support levels, and even though the USCHF followed (mirroring due to the negative correlation) for the downside, but the later didn’t break important support levels? Weird isn’t it?
Anyway, looks like the USDCHF its being rejected from an important LT resistance level:
In the Weekly charts it is also trading just below an important LT resistance level which helps the bearish condition found in the daily charts.
My Trading Plan:
As long as the USDCHF keeps trading below 1.0421 I will be looking for short trade opportunities.
Both the EURUSD and the USDCHF are trading in a 4H range; please take a look at the next charts:
Does it mean that these to currency pairs are not tradable today?
Nope, remember how we define the market condition, how the market reacts to important long term support and resistance levels, for instance, if the USDCHF gets rejected from the LT support level, we’ll be in a bullish market condition and if the EURUSD gets rejected from the resistance level, we´ll all be in a bearish market condition.
So today I’ll be looking for a trade in the direction of the market condition (if I get a good risk-reward ration on my trades).
Yesterday I wrote about the EURUSD, that it just broke a long term resistance level and got out of the range it traded for more than 2 months. Well, the same happened to the USDCHF, it broke two long term support levels and it is also trading below the range it traded for more than 2 months. Take a look at the next chart:
Now, the next long term support level is around 1.0172, the market right now is trading at 1.0426, this means we have a long way to get there, so fasten your seatbelts :)
My Trading Plan:
As long as the USDCHFkeeps trading below 1.0447 I will be looking for short opportunities and will set all my take profit orders above the next long term support level at 1.0172
If you are like me and like to trade based on the long term charts, then you already know the USDCHF is non tradable, at least until it breaks the medium term range. Please take a look at the next chart:
Since late May, the USDCHF entered in this undefined range, where I find very difficult to determine feasible turning points or those major swings. I would rather risk my capital on other pairs where the market condition is clearer.
In the beginning of August the USDCHF tried to break the bottom of the range, but it traded just there, in a short term range and then after the NFP announcement the USD recovered back to no ones land…
So, I will wait for the USDCHF to break the medium term range before I start looking for trade opportunities in the Swiss franc.