Tag: USDJPY Analysis

yen

A few weeks ago I asked you about the type of content that you’d like to see on my blog… and most of you suggested me to write more about entries and the reason behind them… so here I am writing this post…

Setup

Yesterday I told you why I thought it was a good idea to go long in the USDJPY. On the long term charts, the market just broke through an important resistance and it is likely to continue its way up…

So we are clear on the long term charts right? If not, please refer to yesterdays post.

My Trading Plan

So created my plan… I showed you this chart:

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Hey traders, how is your trading going?

What do you think about the USDJPY?

Yesterday I was talking to a trader friend and asked him the same question… He said we wouldnt trade it… its been going up and up and up, and he thought the USDJPY was going to retrace pretty soon…

What do think about that?

Look, I agree with him (in some way), eventually the USDJPY will retrace back… but what if it is in a week from now? If we watch on the sidelines, we’ll lose plenty of opportunities just because we think the market is going to retrace back…

My final argument was that we need to trade what we see not what we think… If the USDJPY is going up, then look for long opportunities.

What are your thoughts?

USDJPY Long Term Analysis

USDJPY Long Term Analysis

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USDJPY

You’ve seen how the USDJPY has been trading in the last few months, it’s been going up and up and up without looking back.

Since February though, it reached an important resistance level (read it “zone”), and its been ranging since then.

Let me show you the 4H chart:

USDJPY 4H Chart

Since the first days of February, when the USDJPY reached this resistance level at 93.80, it started to trade in that range (green levels), has been difficult to break either extreme of the range.

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Swing Trading

Last week I made a multiple time frame analysis on the USDCAD. All charts were pointing up and I thought it was a good idea to look for long opportunities.

Guess what? Since then, the USDCAD has been going up :)

Last week I got a few emails asking me if I’d close my trade over the weekend and last Fridays CAD news announcements (I think it was the CPI)…

My answer was no. I’ve talked about it in the last few weeks, how I’m going to handle news announcements this year. In essence its like this:

I’ve noticed that when there is an important fundamental announcement, most of the time the market will move in the direction of the market condition. I always trade in the direction of the market condition, so if I have enough pips to set my SL to the break even level, I’ll always let my trades run, even during the most important ones.

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Have you been trading the USDJPY?

About a month ago did analyze the USDJPY and thought it was about time to start trading the USDJPY.

Why?

Because it broke through an important resistance level, and there was a long way before it hit the next resistance level, which I have it at 84.06 (around 120 pips from where it is currently trading at).

And you know something, I think it’s still safe to look for long opportunities. Here is the chart:

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It’s been difficult to trade the USDJPY in the last few months. Mostly because of the range medium term range, which has no clear S&R levels…

Or maybe it’s just me but I don’t like to short the USDJPY and you probably guessed why, because of the BOJ interventions.

But when it comes to look for long opportunities, I’m more than happy to trade it…

Let me show you this chart:

USDJPY

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It’s been a while since the last time I traded the USDJPY, it was complicated because it was trading around “intervention” levels. But now, it’s way above those levels, and even if the BOJ intervenes, it’ll be in our direction.

So I’m definitely going to look for long opportunities. This is what I see on the short term charts:

Clear enough don’t you think?

Are you trading the USDJPY?

Good trading!

Raul Lopez
Forex Training

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Getting ready to trade the USDJPY

Are you afraid of BOJ interventions? You should, I’m afraid too, but only if I’m going short, because every BOJ intervention makes the USDJPY skyrocket… But what if I’m looking for long opportunities? Well, if there is an intervention, it will be on the direction of my trade, it will actually help my trade hit my TP order faster :)

Anyway, The USDJPY just broke the top of the ST range, meaning it is already in a bullish market condition:

It’s late on the week for my taste though, I don’t want to get stuck in a trade over the weekend when the market is so close to my entry level, I’d rather wait for next Monday to build my positions here.

Have a great weekend!

Raul Lopez
Forex Training

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